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2031

新光鋼 Iron & Steel As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 新光鋼 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 88Quality 47Growth 69Momentum 46Chips 33

Is 新光鋼 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 60th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 19th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.90
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 國票-安和 holds 3,732 lots
  • sellers have 1,211 lots left, ~14 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票-安和 has accumulated 3,732 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-中壢 peaked at 1,489 lots, has sold 46%, 810 left, ~14 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.08pp, mid holders +4, retail -2.34pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,785 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票-安和中國信託國泰證券元大-中崙第一金-自由富邦證券
Distributing
元大-中壢群益金鼎花旗環球臺銀-高雄永豐金-中正元大-北港
Desks
own scale
國泰-台中統一-中壢摩根大通港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票-安和 +3,732
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +1,694
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +1,671
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-中崙 +1,368
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金-自由 +1,068
    sold 2%
  • 富邦證券 +941
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-中壢 810 left
    sold 46%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎 140 left
    sold 75%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 80 left
    sold 78%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-高雄 43 left
    sold 70%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-中正 75 left
    sold 44%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 元大-北港 50 left
    sold 57%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰-台中 -1,720
    unclassified
  • 統一-中壢 -1,537
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -1,121
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 港商野村 -1,085
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,211 lots ~14 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +7,280 absorbed / -1,015 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,147 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.8%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

86 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 80, Median -1.36%, Excess -0.42%, Beat mkt rate 38.8%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 80, Median -0.41%, Excess -0.89%, Beat mkt rate 36.2%；120-day: Win 50.6%, Sample 79, Median +0.29%, Excess -0.73%, Beat mkt rate 34.2%

120 days after: historical avg +4.02%

20-day +0.2%
60-day +1.29%
120-day +4.02%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.2%
50%
50.6%
Sample
80
80
79
Median
-1.36%
-0.41%
+0.29%
Excess
-0.42%
-0.89%
-0.73%
Beat mkt rate
38.8%
36.2%
34.2%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.02%, lagged the market by 0.73 pts; win rate 50.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here915+9.6% +2.9% 51.6% -2%
20-40 233-9.1% -20.5% 30% -28.3%
40-60 386+19.9% -5.8% 49.7% +5.3%
60-80 305+48.8% +40.9% 99% +22.7%
80-100 340+79.8% +41% 97.6% +36.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 8.56, at the 19.3th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-3.6%
Win rate 34.8% Excess -5.8%
488d
+17.5%
Win rate 56.8% Excess +5%
451d
+20.1%
Win rate 84.2% Excess +3.2%
304d
60-day momentum down
+7.2%
Win rate 45.3% Excess +3.4%
601d
+25.4%
Win rate 70.5% Excess +8.8%
237d
+16.7%
Win rate 71.6% Excess -13.8%
218d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 488 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.6%, win rate 34.8%, lagged the market by 5.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.74%, win rate 52.4%, beating the market by +3.16 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.62%, win rate 54.4%, beating the market by +0.29 pts on average.

What does 新光鋼 do? Company profile

鋼鐵工業；鋼材裁剪加工、鋼品物流、鋼構構件與專案鋼材服務 上市

Overview

2031 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「新光鋼」，公司全名為新光鋼鐵股份有限公司。公司前身於 1965 年設立新光鋼鐵有限公司，1985 年改組為股份有限公司；公司官網另揭露成立於 1967 年，兩者口徑不同，較可能是公司設立與沿革口徑差異。總部位於新北市三重區重新路四段 97 號 25 樓。股票於 1997 年在櫃檯買賣中心掛牌，2000 年掛牌上市；Goodinfo 顯示掛牌上市日期為 2000/09/11。董事長為粟明德，總經理為曾明山。實收資本額約新台幣 32.11 億元，已發行普通股約 321,146,341 股。2025 年法說會資料顯示 2025 年營收新台幣 168 億元、年銷貨噸數 50.8 萬噸；2025 年年報顯示 2025 年合併營收 167.98 億元、營業淨利 9.05 億元、EPS 3.3 元。員工規模方面，年報揭露截至 2025 年底本公司員工 580 人，2026/03/31 仍為 580 人；2026/03 法說會則以集團口徑列示 586 人。主要股東方面，2026/03/31 年報揭露含德投資股份有限公司持有 35,110,276 股、持股 10.93%，添澄實業股份有限公司持有 14,662,469 股、持股 4.57%，張添澄持有 5,228,283 股、持股 1.63%，齊德投資有限公司持有 3,556,000 股、持股 1.11%；法人股東含德投資主要股東為粟有容與粟明德，添澄實業主要股東包括張添澄等。集團轉投資包含前端離岸風電設備製造、新樺鋼鐵工業、新澄物流開發、新威光電等，用於離岸風電水下基礎、橋樑與水資源工程、多功能物流中心、太陽能光電等布局。

Business

新光鋼定位為專業鋼鐵物流中心與一站式鋼鐵解決方案提供者，位於鋼鐵煉軋產品與終端工業成品之間，核心業務包括鋼板、特殊鋼、熱軋鋼板、鍍鋅鋼板、不鏽鋼、型鋼、耐候抗鹽化腐蝕建築材料、鋼構構件等買賣、裁剪、切割、沖壓、成型、加工與配送，並承攬鋼構、橋樑、水資源、離岸風電與太陽光電相關專案。官網列示服務包含不鏽鋼產品系列、中厚板、冷軋與鍍鋅鋼捲、特殊鋼、廠房與大樓鋼結構加工、熱軋鋼捲、鋼板客製化裁剪。2025 年年報以產品別揭露營業比重為鋼板 45.7%、特殊鋼板 7.2%、熱軋及鍍鋅鋼板 30.3%、不鏽鋼 9.4%、型鋼 1.6%、加工及其他 5.8%，以內銷為主；2025 年內銷區域為北區 46%、中區 28%、南區 27%，客戶約 2,000 餘家。2026/03 法說會改以業務性質拆分 2025 年營收：鋼材銷售約 51%、專案鋼材銷售約 25%、金屬製品銷售約 8%、加工業務約 1%、工程承攬約 12%、租賃收入約 2%；終端產業包含倉儲物流、能源、政府投資項目、民間投資項目、機械、船舶運輸、汽機車等。商業模式上，公司以自有庫存、國內外鋼廠採購、全台裁剪與物流據點、車隊配送、專案承攬與轉投資公司協作，提供鋼材銷售、加工、專案供料、工程承攬與物流倉租等服務。主要應用包括公共工程、建築與鋼構、橋樑與軌道、水資源管道、LNG 與燃煤轉氣相關工程、半導體與科技廠房、汽機車零件、機械、造船、電信鐵塔、離岸風電水下基礎、太陽光電支架與農電共生結構等。年報揭露最近兩年度無單一銷貨客戶占銷貨總額 10% 以上，2025 年前十大客戶約占營收 30.10%、最大客戶約 6.59%，因此不宜推定具名主要客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年營運已較 2024 年回升，年報揭露合併營收年增 15.12%、營業利益年增 52.78%，銷售鋼品 50.8 萬噸，達年度目標 52 萬噸的 98%。公司 2026 年策略重點包括調整庫存與產品組合、提高高毛利產品市占、導入減碳或碳中和綠色鋼材、深耕風電與光電、因應前瞻基礎建設、燃煤轉氣、水資源、橋樑工程、台電大光明計畫、半導體先進製程建設、都市更新、危老重建與社會住宅需求，並以集團網絡整合上下游，推出高階鋼品與全方位價值鏈方案。2026/03 法說會對 2026-2027 年展望偏正面，認為美國對等關稅塵埃落定後終端客戶需求復甦回補庫存、鋼價落底反彈，2026 年全年銷售目標 58 萬噸、較 2025 年約年增 16%，並預期風電工程、橋樑工程與民間廠房工程等專案大量交貨支撐 2026-2027 年營運。中長期成長動能包括：AI 與半導體擴廠帶動廠辦、能源、水資源、電網與交通基礎建設用鋼需求；台灣 2050 淨零與風光電政策帶動離岸風電、太陽能、燃煤轉氣與淨水資源工程；新澄物流園區與新慶物流等物流倉儲投資提供租賃收入；新樺鋼鐵切入橋樑、水資源、鋼結構與 LNG 電廠冷卻循環取排水鋼管；新威光電與策略夥伴規劃 2027-2028 年約 300MW 農電共生或屋頂型光電相關案場，若執行順利將對集團營收有貢獻。公司長期目標為營收達成雙位數 CAGR，並將鋼材銷售以外的高毛利產品與服務比重提升至 5 成以上。主要風險包括：鋼價與原料價格波動、美元採購與匯率風險、利率與融資成本、國際關稅與貿易壁壘、地緣政治、中國房地產與全球鋼鐵供需過剩、國內房市與營建需求趨緩、機械與汽車等外銷下游需求疲弱、再生能源案場進度延遲、部分原料或設備供應商集中、重加工設備交期長、擴產投資未能匹配需求、技術升級或競爭者取得先進裁剪製程造成競爭力壓力。2028 年以後的具體營收與獲利未見公司正式量化預測，僅能依政策目標與公司專案規劃推估光電、離岸風電、物流倉儲與半導體基建仍是主要觀察軸。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國鋼鐵 2002 主要原料來源之一；年報揭露鋼板、特殊鋼、熱軋鋼板、熱浸鍍鋅鋼板等來源包含中鋼。
  • 中龍鋼鐵 主要原料來源之一；年報揭露熱軋鋼板與型鋼來源包含中龍。中龍為中鋼集團子公司，非台股獨立掛牌公司。
  • 豐興鋼鐵 2015 主要原料來源之一；年報揭露特殊鋼與型鋼來源包含豐興。
  • 東和鋼鐵 2006 主要原料來源之一；年報揭露型鋼來源包含東和。
  • 日本、韓國、印度、中國、越南鋼廠 海外原料來源；年報揭露鋼板、耐候抗鹽化腐蝕建築材料、特殊鋼、花紋鋼板、熱軋鋼板、熱浸鍍鋅鋼板、不鏽鋼等部分由日本、韓國、印度、中國、越南供應，未揭露具名公司。
  • 設備與重加工機台供應商 公司擴充產能與精密加工能力仰賴裁剪、焊接、重加工、自動化與檢測設備；年報指出重加工機台採購前置期可能長達六個月，未揭露具名供應商。
Downstream
  • 公共工程、橋樑、軌道與水資源工程業主 主要終端應用；包括橋樑盤式支承、建築隔震支承、橋樑軌道、水道用鋼管、承插接頭式鋼管、公共工程鋼板與鋼構等，客戶多為政府機關、工程總包或專案公司，年報未揭露具名主要客戶。
  • 台積電 2330 半導體廠辦與先進製程建設帶動鋼材、基礎螺栓、結構件與能源設施需求；2025/08 法說會列示台積電基礎螺栓與結構件加工案例。
  • 千附精密 6829 2025/08 法說會列示千附精密馬稠後鋼構安裝工程案例；屬半導體供應鏈衛星園區與民間廠房工程需求之一。
  • 沃旭能源 離岸風電終端開發商；公開徵才資料提及子公司前端風電長管產品已使用於沃旭大彰化離岸風場。沃旭為丹麥公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 哥本哈根基礎建設基金相關風場 離岸風電終端開發商或投資方；公開徵才資料提及產品使用於彰芳西島離岸風場。CIP 相關基金非台股掛牌。
  • 太陽光電 EPC 與農電、漁電共生專案公司 下游應用包含耐候支架成型模組、屋頂型與地面型光電、農電與漁電共生結構；公司法說會提及 2027-2028 年與策略夥伴合資專案公司、規劃約 300MW 裝置容量，但未完整揭露具名客戶。
  • 汽機車、機械、造船、鋼管、五金與建材製造商 一般鋼板、熱軋、鍍鋅、不鏽鋼、特殊鋼與型鋼下游客戶；年報揭露客戶約 2,000 餘家且無單一銷貨客戶超過 10%，未揭露具名主要客戶。
  • 物流倉儲與電商物流業者 新澄物流園區與新慶物流等現代化多功能物流中心提供倉儲租賃及物流空間；法說會揭露物流倉儲為終端產業之一，但未揭露完整承租客戶。

Competitors

  • 春源 2010 鋼品裁剪加工與通路同業；MoneyDJ 指出新光鋼國內鋼品裁剪加工同業包括春源、璋釔等。
  • 璋釔 鋼品裁剪加工同業；MoneyDJ 與 StockFeel 將其列為新光鋼相關同業。
  • 中鋼 2002 上游鋼廠兼部分鋼品市場競爭者；同時也是新光鋼原料來源之一，競合關係明顯。
  • 中鴻 2014 冷熱軋鋼品同業與上中游供給者；StockFeel 將其列為鋼板相關競爭公司。
  • 燁輝 2023 鍍鋅、烤漆等鋼品製造與加工同業；StockFeel 將其列為鋼板相關競爭公司。
  • 盛餘 2029 鍍鋅鋼捲、烤漆鋼捲與鋼板相關同業；StockFeel 與 Yahoo 同業比較列為相近公司。
  • 美亞 2020 MoneyDJ 鋼鐵金屬之鋼剪裁加工類股列入相關公司，與鋼管、裁剪加工及鋼品通路有部分重疊。
  • 世紀鋼 9958 離岸風電與鋼構領域同業；新光鋼透過前端離岸風電布局水下基礎，與世紀鋼在風電鋼構供應鏈有競合關係。
  • 台灣鋼鐵、東南亞及中國鋼品加工與進口鋼品業者 年報指出鋼鐵進出口自由化、二次加工業者進入門檻低，且中國、印尼、越南等進口品在不鏽鋼與鋼品市場形成競爭壓力；未能對應單一台股掛牌公司。
Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.