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2107

厚生 Rubber As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 厚生 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 82Quality 56Growth 46Momentum 51Chips 73

Is 厚生 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~82% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 37th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 84th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.96
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 群益金鼎-海山 holds 7,126 lots
  • sellers have 224 lots left, ~28 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-海山 has accumulated 7,126 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 372 lots, has sold 26%, 275 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.76pp, mid holders +1, retail -3.28pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -137 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-海山永豐金-萬盛台灣摩根士丹利兆豐-埔墘美林富邦-新板
Distributing
美商高盛凱基-台北富邦-花蓮富邦-敦南花旗環球台新證券
Desks
own scale
臺銀-民權康和-台南元大-左營台中銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-海山 +7,126
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-萬盛 +2,946
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +438
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 兆豐-埔墘 +305
    sold 0%
  • 美林 +305
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 富邦-新板 +171
    sold 7%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 275 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 165 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 富邦-花蓮 127 left
    sold 47%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-敦南 27 left
    sold 84%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 106 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 92 left
    sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

  • 臺銀-民權 -598
    unclassified
  • 康和-台南 -547
    unclassified
  • 元大-左營 -538
    unclassified
  • 台中銀 -495
    unclassified
Still selling 224 lots ~28 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,951 absorbed / -169 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -14 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-17)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 30, Median -0.61%, Excess +1.08%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +2.69%, Excess -2.53%, Beat mkt rate 37.9%；120-day: Win 63%, Sample 27, Median +7.17%, Excess -1.78%, Beat mkt rate 37%

120 days after: historical avg +7.06%

20-day +1.54%
60-day +3.69%
120-day +7.06%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
58.6%
63%
Sample
30
29
27
Median
-0.61%
+2.69%
+7.17%
Excess
+1.08%
-2.53%
-1.78%
Beat mkt rate
50%
37.9%
37%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.06%, lagged the market by 1.78 pts; win rate 63%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 404-14.6% -24% 30.9% -17.6%
20-40 396+23.3% +22.8% 97.5% -0.2%
40-60 560+9.1% +4.1% 64.1% -5.3%
60-80 810+10.6% +8.6% 78.9% -17.2%
80-100 You are here810+7.6% +2.3% 63.1% -3.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.5, at the 84.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+9.5%
Win rate 80.3% Excess +2.2%
452d
+8.1%
Win rate 63.9% Excess -3.5%
523d
Now
+4.1%
Win rate 61.3% Excess -6.2%
832d
60-day momentum down
-14.8%
Win rate 18.7% Excess -14.2%
214d
+4.5%
Win rate 56.1% Excess -4%
483d
+3.5%
Win rate 71.3% Excess -5%
596d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 832 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.1%, win rate 61.3%, lagged the market by 6.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

104 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.44%, win rate 58%, beating the market by -0.48 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.96%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by -1.45 pts on average.

What does 厚生 do? Company profile

橡膠工業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

厚生股份有限公司，英文簡稱 FRG，統一編號 03283306，公開資料顯示成立日為 1963-01-22，股票於 1992-03-03 在台灣證券交易所上市；部分公司法說會或外部整理資料亦提到厚生創業歷程可追溯至 1952 年，兩者口徑不同，本研究以公司基本資料的 1963 年為成立日。公司地址為台北市漢口街一段82號8樓，董事長徐正材，總經理徐正己，發言人黃慧嫻，代理發言人鄭勝元，實收資本額約新台幣 3,035,934,000 元，已發行普通股 303,593,400 股。公開股務與市場資料顯示董監事持股約 26% 至 27%；主要持股/董事席次相關法人包含瑞孚建設、厚和建設、全鑫豐、瑞錦國際等，董事長徐正材及總經理徐正己亦持有公司股份。外部法說會整理稱截至 2024 年底員工人數約 194 人，但此數字未能在本次可直接開啟的官方原文中完整核驗，故列為中等信心資料。

Business

厚生早期以橡膠、塑膠加工製造起家，原本產品包含塑膠發泡布、聚氯脂膠皮、橡膠膠布、空氣床、橡皮舟、聚氨脂膠皮、聚碳酸脂樹脂板及相關充氣、救生與包材用途材料；後逐步轉型為橫跨生產事業、倉儲物流與營建/不動產開發的多元型公司。2024 年外部資料顯示營收結構約為橡膠膠皮 36%、塑膠膠皮 11%、綠塑膠皮 11%、營建 20%、倉儲 20%；2025 年法說會整理資料顯示 2025 年前三季生產事業收入約 653,694 仟元、占 65%，營建事業約 111,381 仟元、占 11%，物流中心約 242,359 仟元、占 24%。生產事業產品含 PVC、天然/合成橡膠、PU/TPU 綠塑等膠皮材料，應用於醫療、工業防護、雨衣、箱包、軌道車、船舶、建築、航空、潛水服、汽車、充氣救生產品等。倉儲事業主要提供南崁物流園區、板橋橋峰商場之租賃管理，並推動龍潭智能園區土地開發及倉庫興建；外部與法說會整理資料顯示南崁物流園區倉庫面積約 30,000 坪、橋峰商場約 1,800 至 1,882 坪。營建事業以自有土地、合建分屋、都更及不動產開發為主，曾與欣陸旗下大陸建設/大陸工程合作板橋、新店、台北信義、台中與高雄等開發案。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年的核心觀察是營運結構持續由大型營建案循環，轉向生產事業穩定現金流與物流倉儲成長。生產事業方面，公司持續朝高附加價值、環保與特殊應用材料發展，包括高性能樓地板隔音材料、高階多功能防護服面料、救生艇/逃生設備用料、航空修繕充氣千斤頂材料等；法說會整理資料稱公司累計專利與產品認證數持續增加，若新產品切入海事、航空、建築綠材與工業防護市場，毛利率有機會維持較佳水準。物流倉儲方面，南崁、板橋與龍潭據點提供穩定租賃收入，龍潭智能園區 A 棟倉庫已完工，外部整理稱 2025 年進駐率約 65%，第二期規劃開發面積約 8,500 坪土地與約 9,291 坪建物，未來若成功引入高科技、保稅倉儲、GDP 標準倉庫與一站式物流服務客戶，2026 至 2028 年可望提升物流收入占比與穩定性。營建方面，高雄國賓危老合建案由大陸建設、國賓與厚生合作，厚生以地主/土地持分角色參與，屬長週期案；截至公開資料，推案與完工/認列時程仍具不確定性，短期 2025 至 2028 年對營收貢獻可能有限，較可能作為 2028 年後或更長期資產價值題材。主要風險包括橡膠、PVC、DOP、尼龍布等原料價格波動，匯率波動，外銷需求變化，台灣與全球不動產景氣循環，建照、環評、都審與施工時程延誤，物流倉儲招商低於預期，以及營業外投資收益波動造成淨利不穩定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台聚 1304 厚生橡膠/塑膠皮事業上游原料供應來源之一；外部資料列為台灣聚合，推定對應台聚，需以公司採購名單進一步確認。
  • 南帝 2108 合成橡膠等上游原料供應商；外部資料列為南帝橡膠。
  • 聯成 1313 DOP、塑化相關原料供應商之一。
  • 中詠 外部資料列為原料供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 台塑 1301 PVC 粉等塑化原料供應商之一。
  • 大洋 1321 塑膠皮/塑化材料供應或同業關係；外部資料列為厚生原料供應商之一。
  • 福懋 1434 尼龍布、工業布或紡織基材等上游材料供應來源之一。
  • 遠東新 1402 纖維、布料或聚酯相關材料供應來源之一；外部資料列為遠東。
Downstream
  • 欣陸 3703 旗下大陸建設/大陸工程與厚生長期合作不動產合建案，包含板橋及高雄國賓危老重建案；大陸建設本身未上市，欣陸為其母公司台股上市公司。
  • 國賓 2704 高雄國賓飯店危老改建案共同參與方，厚生取得/持有部分土地並與國賓、大陸建設共同開發。
  • 玉山金 2884 外部資料顯示玉山銀行為板橋橋峰商場承租戶之一；玉山銀行為玉山金控子公司。
  • 永豐金 2890 外部資料顯示永豐金證券為板橋橋峰商場承租戶之一；永豐金證券為永豐金控子公司。
  • 南山人壽 外部資料顯示為板橋橋峰商場承租戶之一；未上市。
  • Audi 汽車經銷體系 外部資料顯示 AUDI 汽車經銷商為板橋橋峰商場承租戶之一；非台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • 通用 外部資料列為橡膠製品競爭廠商；未能確認對應台股上市櫃公司。
  • 三芳 1307 塑膠皮、合成皮與相關材料同業。
  • 大洋 1321 塑膠皮相關同業，同時也可能在厚生上游供應鏈中扮演材料供應角色。
  • 世坤 4305 塑膠皮/塑膠製品相關同業。
  • 信立 4303 塑膠皮、合成皮與相關材料同業。
  • 南亞 1303 PVC、塑膠加工與塑膠皮相關競爭者。
  • 力麒 5512 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
  • 冠德 2520 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
  • 長虹 5534 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
  • 華固 2548 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
  • 興富發 2542 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
  • 潤泰新 9945 不動產開發/營建與資產型公司競爭者之一。
  • 遠雄 5522 不動產開發/營建事業競爭者之一。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.