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2880

華南金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華南金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 57Quality 83Growth 67Momentum 70Chips 1

Is 華南金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 40th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 79th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -26.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基 holds 59,669 lots
  • sellers have 2,008 lots left, ~352 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基 has accumulated 59,669 lots since the start (sold 5%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 3,355 lots, has sold 67%, 1,099 left, ~22 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.51pp, mid holders -40, retail -0.40pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -167,903 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基永豐金證券玉山證券國泰證券康和第一金
Distributing
國泰-敦南台新華南永昌-高雄凱基-屏東華南永昌-基隆華南永昌-三重
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛元大證券凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基 +59,669
    sold 5%
  • 永豐金證券 +56,585
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +44,565
    sold 1%
  • 國泰證券 +29,858
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 康和 +29,129
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金 +26,318
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 1,099 left
    sold 67%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 台新 413 left
    sold 69%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-高雄 384 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 凱基-屏東 141 left
    sold 69%· ~353 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-基隆 217 left
    sold 32%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-三重 150 left
    sold 44%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -57,866
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -52,662
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -38,750
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -25,186
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 2,008 lots ~353 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +78,359 absorbed / -1,384 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -142,640 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

49 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-19)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 48, Median +1.09%, Excess +0.69%, Beat mkt rate 52.1%；60-day: Win 72.9%, Sample 48, Median +3.39%, Excess +0.8%, Beat mkt rate 47.9%；120-day: Win 83%, Sample 47, Median +5.98%, Excess +0.72%, Beat mkt rate 55.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.43%

20-day +1.01%
60-day +2.79%
120-day +5.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.5%
72.9%
83%
Sample
48
48
47
Median
+1.09%
+3.39%
+5.98%
Excess
+0.69%
+0.8%
+0.72%
Beat mkt rate
52.1%
47.9%
55.3%

Over 47 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.43%, beat the market by 0.72 pts; win rate 83%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 578+8.4% +11.9% 70.9% -1.4%
20-40 849+16.5% +14.3% 98.5% -0.8%
40-60 693+16.6% +17% 93.4% +0.2%
60-80 You are here654+6.8% +3.8% 67.4% -10.8%
80-100 242+18.5% +20.3% 90.5% -9.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.41, at the 79.2th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.9%
Win rate 82.6% Excess -0.9%
729d
+8%
Win rate 87.9% Excess +2.9%
977d
Now
+3.9%
Win rate 53.5% Excess -9.1%
480d
60-day momentum down
+6.7%
Win rate 82.4% Excess -2%
398d
+10%
Win rate 91.8% Excess -1.1%
304d
+3.4%
Win rate 64.9% Excess -11.2%
248d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 480 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.9%, win rate 53.5%, lagged the market by 9.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.8%, win rate 53.2%, beating the market by +0.33 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

82 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.96%, win rate 64.2%, beating the market by -1.24 pts on average.

What does 華南金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金控業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2880 對應華南金融控股股份有限公司，簡稱華南金，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為金融保險業。公司於 2001-12-19 由華南商業銀行及永昌綜合證券以股權轉換方式設立，並於同日上市；總部位於臺北市信義區松仁路123號。主要業務為金融控股公司業、投資經主管機關核准之事業、對被投資事業之管理。官方公司基本資料顯示，截至 2025年9月實收資本額為新台幣139,169,650,890元；截至 2024年12月員工人數為11,429人。董事長為陳芬蘭；董事兼總經理為蕭玉美，官方組織資料顯示蕭玉美於 2026-02-24 就任總經理，綜理公司業務。主要股東名單截至 2026-04-20 包括臺灣銀行21.23%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶3.88%、臺銀人壽3.84%、第一商業銀行2.44%、元鼎投資2.17%、永財投資1.93%、臺灣銀行受託保管元大台灣高股息低波動ETF 1.77%、財團法人林熊徵學田基金會1.77%、財政部1.70%、華泰商業銀行受託信託財產專戶1.35%、中國信託託管元大寶來台灣卓越50基金專戶1.29%，前列合計43.37%。股東結構為政府機構28.03%、金融機構11.18%、其他法人20.15%、個人23.41%、外國機構及外國人17.23%。集團業務版圖涵蓋銀行、證券、產險、投信、資產管理與創投；主要子公司或事業包括華南商業銀行、華南永昌綜合證券、華南產物保險、華南永昌投信、華南金資產管理、華南金創業投資。

Business

華南金是以銀行為核心的公股金控，商業模式為持有與管理金融子公司，透過銀行存放款、財富管理、信用卡與支付、企業金融、外匯、證券經紀與承銷、產物保險、投信基金、資產管理及創投投資取得利息淨收益、手續費收益、保險承保與投資收益、證券經紀與金融商品收益。官方服務內容顯示，華南銀行提供銀行、保險、證券、投信等整合式金融服務；華南永昌證券有分公司與華南銀行證券櫃檯通路，提供台股、複委託、電子交易等服務；華南產險提供產物保險；華南永昌投信提供公募基金、私募基金與全權委託；華南金資產管理從事不良債權投資處分管理、受託管理、法拍代標與不動產直接投資管理；華南金創投投資具新技術、新構想與高度發展潛力公司並輔導創業、併購或上市櫃。營收與獲利結構上，銀行仍是最主要獲利來源；公開法說與新聞資料顯示，2025年華南金稅後淨利264.24億元，EPS 1.90元，創歷史新高；華南銀行2025年稅後淨利241.52億元、年增11.8%，約占集團稅後淨利九成，利息淨收益與手續費淨收益雙位數成長，財富管理手續費收入達108.31億元。華南永昌證券2025年稅後淨利20.64億元、年增8.2%；華南產險2025年稅後淨利18.02億元再創新高。2026年第1季華南金自結稅後淨利76.60億元、年增約44%、EPS 0.55元；2026年前4月合併稅後淨利111.14億元、年增約60%，銀行、證券、產險、創投、AMC等子公司獲利動能同步轉強。主要客戶包括個人存戶與投資人、中小企業、企業授信客戶、高資產與財富管理客戶、保險客戶、證券交易客戶、基金與全權委託客戶；終端應用為企業融資、國際貿易金融、個人金融、財富管理、資本市場交易、保險保障、資產管理與創投投資。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已由銀行核心收益、財富管理手續費與子公司獲利共同推升，全年稅後淨利264.24億元創高，顯示華南金過去調整存放款結構、提高資本使用效率與強化手續費收入已有成果。2026年截至第1季與前4月資料顯示，成長動能來自五個方向：一是華南銀行調整存放款結構，利差及NIM同步提升；二是財富管理業務持續擴張，2026年第1季財富管理業務年增19%、手續費淨收益年增16%並創歷年單季新高；三是台股交易熱絡帶動華南永昌證券獲利，2026年前4月稅後淨利19.32億元；四是華南產險簽單保費與承保表現改善，2026年前4月稅後淨利6.96億元、年增60%；五是共同行銷、綠色金融與數位轉型帶動集團綜效，2026年4月底綠色投資金額1,470億元、綠色融資2,599億元，綠色投融資總額年增4%，共同行銷收益年增45%，生成式AI助理與機器人工廠已導入內部營運。管理層於2026年法說指出採行提高資本使用效率、調整獲利結構並深化客群、導入金融科技、強化集團共銷、嚴格風險與績效管理等策略，並啟動五年策略發展藍圖；因此2026至2028年合理觀察重點為銀行利差與放款品質能否維持、財富管理與高資產客戶AUM能否擴大、證券與產險是否能降低景氣循環波動、綠色金融與AI導入是否轉化為收入或成本效率。潛在風險包括全球高利率或降息節奏不確定造成淨利息收益與投資收益波動、地緣政治與能源價格推升通膨、市場波動影響證券與投資收益、房市修正與央行信用管制影響不動產授信與房貸成長、企業信用成本上升、金融監理與資本適足要求、IFRS與保險會計接軌對金融同業估值與資本規劃的間接影響，以及公股金控在併購、人才、數位金融與財富管理競爭上的執行風險。2027至2028具體量化目標未在已查得公開資料中完整揭露，本段對中長期動能屬依2025至2026年已公告策略與產業趨勢之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣銀行股份有限公司 未上市銀行；華南金最大股東，持股21.23%，屬公股金融體系重要關係企業與資本／股權來源。
  • 臺銀人壽保險股份有限公司 未上市保險公司；主要股東之一，持股3.84%，屬公股金融體系關係企業。
  • 第一商業銀行股份有限公司 未上市銀行，母公司第一金控為台股上市公司2892；第一商業銀行為華南金主要股東之一，持股2.44%。
  • 元鼎投資股份有限公司 未上市投資公司；主要股東之一，持股2.17%。
  • 勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所 非上市專業服務機構；華南金簽證會計師事務所，屬財報查核與治理供應商，非傳統原料供應商。
Downstream
  • 華南商業銀行股份有限公司 未上市子公司；集團最主要營運平台，服務個人、企業、中小企業、高資產與財富管理客戶，2025年稅後淨利約占集團九成。
  • 華南永昌綜合證券股份有限公司 未上市子公司；提供證券經紀、融資、複委託、電子交易等資本市場服務，是集團證券通路。
  • 華南產物保險股份有限公司 未上市子公司；提供車險、意外險與其他產物保險，是集團保險服務平台。
  • 華南永昌證券投資信託股份有限公司 未上市子公司；提供公募基金、私募基金與全權委託等資產管理服務。
  • 華南金資產管理股份有限公司 未上市子公司；從事不良債權投資與處分、受託管理、法拍代標、不動產投資及管理。
  • 華南金創業投資股份有限公司 未上市子公司；投資具新技術、新構想與高度發展潛力之公司，並輔導創業、併購或上市櫃。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.