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3044

健鼎 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 健鼎 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 36Quality 83Growth 83Momentum 89Chips 89

Is 健鼎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~81% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 58th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 46.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 7,598 lots
  • sellers have 543 lots left, ~89 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +83% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 7,598 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 6,063 lots, has sold 39%, 3,722 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.21pp, mid holders +9, retail -0.11pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7,411 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利港商野村香港上海匯豐第一金法銀巴黎
Distributing
摩根大通兆豐證券永豐金-匯立富邦證券康和玉山證券
Desks
own scale
港商麥格理美林凱基-台北凱基
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +7,598
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +6,548
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +4,911
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +4,237
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金 +799
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +791
    sold 24%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 3,722 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 兆豐證券 375 left
    sold 70%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-匯立 662 left
    sold 41%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 237 left
    sold 73%· paused recently
  • 康和 122 left
    sold 77%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 73 left
    sold 82%· ~2 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 港商麥格理 -4,500
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -2,631
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -2,466
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 凱基 -2,174
    unclassified
Still selling 543 lots ~89 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +8,541 absorbed / -628 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4,941 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 historical occurrences (since 2009-08-13)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 38, Median -1.35%, Excess -1.39%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 59.5%, Sample 37, Median +5.93%, Excess +1.14%, Beat mkt rate 54.1%；120-day: Win 52.8%, Sample 36, Median +1.53%, Excess +0.85%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%

120 days after: historical avg +7.73%

20-day 0%
60-day +5.92%
120-day +7.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
59.5%
52.8%
Sample
38
37
36
Median
-1.35%
+5.93%
+1.53%
Excess
-1.39%
+1.14%
+0.85%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
54.1%
41.7%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.73%, beat the market by 0.85 pts; win rate 52.8%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 46.56%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

39 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 41.9%, Sample 31, Median -2.33%, Excess -1.03%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%；60-day: Win 37.9%, Sample 29, Median -2.47%, Excess -1.76%, Beat mkt rate 37.9%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 28, Median -2.18%, Excess -1.87%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%

120 days after: historical avg +0.86%

20-day -0.71%
60-day +0.41%
120-day +0.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
41.9%
37.9%
50%
Sample
31
29
28
Median
-2.33%
-2.47%
-2.18%
Excess
-1.03%
-1.76%
-1.87%
Beat mkt rate
38.7%
37.9%
35.7%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.86%, lagged the market by 1.87 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 690+51% +47.1% 86.2% +30.8%
20-40 766+19.5% +12.4% 76.8% +6%
40-60 474+20.7% +2.8% 62.9% +4.8%
60-80 492+20.4% +4.1% 60% +4.2%
80-100 You are here619+12.1% +1.6% 53.8% -4.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 27.75, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+24%
Win rate 84.1% Excess +16%
561d
+9.2%
Win rate 54.9% Excess +3.9%
590d
Now
+7.5%
Win rate 62.3% Excess -4%
833d
60-day momentum down
+12.1%
Win rate 79.6% Excess +4.3%
706d
+7.2%
Win rate 53.7% Excess +0.3%
227d
+10.1%
Win rate 70.9% Excess +0.9%
244d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 833 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.5%, win rate 62.3%, lagged the market by 4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.06%, win rate 62.9%, beating the market by +2 pts on average.

What does 健鼎 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板（PCB）製造 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3044 對應證券為健鼎科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1991/12/16，公開發行日為 1997/06/20，2000/12/07 於櫃買中心上櫃，2002/08/26 轉上市；總部位於桃園市平鎮區平鎮工業區工業五路 21 號。董事長為王景春，總經理為黃樂仁，發言人為林修立。主要營業項目為印刷電路板、工業自動化機械、電子收銀機系統；實收資本額約新台幣 52.56 億元，已發行普通股 525,605,898 股。公司主要生產/研發據點包括台灣平鎮、中國無錫、中國湖北仙桃，以及越南邊和；2023 年亦揭露越南周德子公司設立與租地規劃。2023 年年報揭露截至 2024/4/30 合併從業員工 26,334 人。主要股東名單（2024/4/20）包括安和國際投資 7.94%、群益台灣精選高息 ETF 基金專戶 6.90%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶 4.84%、復華台灣科技優息 ETF 基金專戶 4.82%、中安投資 3.00%、利國皇家銀行投資專戶 2.40%、中華郵政 2.32%。2026 年第 1 季公告營收約 209.64 億元、歸屬母公司淨利約 29.46 億元、EPS 5.61 元；2026 年 1-5 月累計營收約 378.20 億元，年增約 28.66%。

Business

健鼎是大型全製程 PCB 製造商，主要商品為雙面板、多層板與高階多層印刷電路板，產品用途涵蓋 PC 與周邊、通訊、工業儀器、消費性電子、汽車用板、伺服器、資料中心、網通、記憶體模組、SSD、車用高階 HDI 等。公司年報部門資訊顯示應報導部門為「印刷電路板」與「其他」，其中 PCB 為絕對主體；2024 年前三季 PCB 部門收入約 485.17 億元，其他部門相對很小。公司商業模式以接單式製造、跨廠區產能調度、製程能力與良率管理、交期與品質服務大型國際客戶；2023 年無單一客戶銷貨占比達 10% 以上，表示客戶集中度相對分散或客戶名稱未達揭露門檻。產品組合依公開報導與法人資訊，近年重心由傳統 PC/消費性電子，轉向伺服器/網通、記憶體模組/SSD、汽車電子等高階應用；2024 年第 3 季伺服器應用板營收比重首度超過 30%，2025 年第 1 季約 32.4%，並成為最大應用類別。公司研發方向包括 Enterprise RDIMM/LRDIMM/NV-DIMM DDR5/DDR6、HLC+HDI Server、Enterprise SSD、TFT、Automotive 軟硬結合板、高散熱汽車厚銅板、DC-DC 高電流/高電壓板、高階 server/switch/base station/small cell PCB、LiDAR、低損耗高頻材料、Fine Line、雷射對位、MSAP 製程等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 年展望偏正向但伴隨週期與競爭風險。成長動能包括：1. AI 伺服器、一般型伺服器平台升級、資料中心與雲端投資擴張，推升高層數、高速、高密度多層 PCB 需求；2. DDR5、HBM 週邊、Enterprise SSD 與 DRAM 模組需求帶動記憶體相關板；3. 車用電子、電動車高電壓/高電流/散熱需求帶動厚銅、散熱材與高可靠度 HDI；4. 5G/B5G/6G、switch/router/base station 等高頻高速網通產品對低損耗材料、阻抗控制、背鑽、VIPPO、HDI 設計要求提升，有利具規模與製程能力的廠商；5. 越南產能布局有助分散地緣政治與關稅風險並回應國際客戶供應鏈韌性需求。公司年報引用 Prismark 預估 2023-2028 年全球 PCB 市場複合成長率約 5.4%，2028 年市場規模約 904 億美元；健鼎 2023 年 PCB 合併銷售額約 19 億美元、全球市占約 2.7%。2025 年全年營收據公開報導約 733.99 億元、年增 11.54% 並創新高；2026 年前 5 月營收延續高成長，反映伺服器與記憶體需求仍強。主要風險包括：PCB 產業同質性與產能競爭造成價格壓力；AI/伺服器與記憶體需求若進入庫存調整，營收波動可能放大；原物料如銅箔、基板、金鹽、樹脂與化學品價格波動；人民幣、美元、越南盾匯率風險；中國、越南、台灣跨國生產的地緣政治、關稅、環保與勞動成本風險；高階產品驗證週期與良率爬升不如預期；車用電子景氣與電動車成長低於預期。2027-2028 的更長期推估仍高度依賴 AI 資本支出、記憶體週期、越南新產能開出速度與高階產品組合，因此屬中等信心展望。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 PCB 上游材料供應鏈之一；年報產業結構列示南亞涉及銅箔、玻纖布、樹脂、基板等材料，是否為健鼎直接供應商未逐一揭露。
  • 台灣玻璃工業股份有限公司 1802 PCB 上游玻璃布/玻纖材料供應鏈；年報產業結構列示台灣玻璃，屬上游材料公司，直接交易關係未揭露。
  • 長興材料工業股份有限公司 1717 PCB 上游樹脂、油墨、乾膜等化學材料供應鏈；年報產業結構列示長興，直接供應關係未揭露。
  • 台光電子材料股份有限公司 2383 PCB 上游銅箔基板/高階材料供應鏈；年報產業結構列示台光，直接供應關係未揭露。
  • 台燿科技股份有限公司 6274 PCB 上游銅箔基板與高頻高速材料同業/供應鏈公司；年報產業結構列示台灣德聯、台光、台灣松電工等材料供應體系，台燿為台灣掛牌 CCL 廠，直接供應關係未確認。
  • 宏泰電工股份有限公司 1612 PCB 上游基板/電工材料供應鏈相關公司；年報產業結構列示宏泰電工，直接供應關係未揭露。
  • 亞洲化學股份有限公司 1715 PCB 上游膠片/材料供應鏈；年報產業結構列示亞洲化學，直接供應關係未揭露。
  • 長春集團 未上市集團；年報產業結構列示長春涉及銅箔、樹脂、乾膜等 PCB 上游材料，直接供應關係未逐一揭露。
Downstream
  • 伺服器與資料中心客戶群 公司未揭露單一客戶名稱；公開報導指出伺服器/網通為近年主要成長應用，涵蓋 AI 與非 AI 伺服器板、switch/router、data center、storage、backplane 等。
  • 記憶體模組與 SSD 客戶群 公司未揭露客戶名稱；公開報導指出 DRAM/SSD、Enterprise SSD、DDR5/DDR6 模組板需求是 2025-2026 年重要動能。
  • 汽車電子客戶群 公司未揭露客戶名稱；下游應用包括車用高階 HDI、厚銅、高散熱、高電壓/高電流 PCB、LiDAR 與電動車相關電子。
  • PC、通訊、工業與消費性電子品牌/代工鏈 年報揭露 PCB 用途涵蓋 PC 及周邊、通訊、工業儀器、消費性電子等，但未揭露直接客戶。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 台股上市伺服器/雲端硬體代工代表公司，屬健鼎產品可能服務的伺服器下游產業鏈；未確認為健鼎直接客戶。
  • 緯創資通股份有限公司 3231 台股上市伺服器/資料中心與 PC 代工代表公司，屬下游產業鏈；未確認為健鼎直接客戶。
  • 英業達股份有限公司 2356 台股上市伺服器與 PC 代工代表公司，屬下游產業鏈；未確認為健鼎直接客戶。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.