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3443

創意 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 創意 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 12Quality 87Growth 94Momentum 97Chips 13

Is 創意 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 76th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 12.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 93th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.1% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 132.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.27
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 1,832 lots
  • sellers have 1,150 lots left, ~160 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +88% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 1,832 lots since the start (sold 8%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 1,094 lots, has sold 87%, 145 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.82pp, mid holders +4, retail +0.01pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,646 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀元大證券國泰證券花旗環球國票-安和台新-五權西
Distributing
港商野村美林凱基-台北香港上海匯豐國票-敦北法人永豐金-匯立
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券大和國泰群益金鼎
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +1,832
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +1,411
    sold 16%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +783
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +604
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-安和 +447
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 台新-五權西 +249
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商野村 145 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 美林 539 left
    sold 43%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 105 left
    sold 84%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 香港上海匯豐 315 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 194 left
    sold 48%· ~57 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 123 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,218
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 富邦證券 -787
    unclassified
  • 大和國泰 -451
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎 -418
    unclassified
Still selling 1,150 lots ~160 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,586 absorbed / -611 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,516 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 132.13%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

114 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.6%, Sample 97, Median +1.73%, Excess +3.17%, Beat mkt rate 54.6%；60-day: Win 58.9%, Sample 95, Median +5.95%, Excess +9.94%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%；120-day: Win 59.8%, Sample 92, Median +9.5%, Excess +18.34%, Beat mkt rate 57.6%

120 days after: historical avg +23.98%

20-day +4.11%
60-day +12.7%
120-day +23.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.6%
58.9%
59.8%
Sample
97
95
92
Median
+1.73%
+5.95%
+9.5%
Excess
+3.17%
+9.94%
+18.34%
Beat mkt rate
54.6%
57.9%
57.6%

Over 92 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.98%, beat the market by 18.34 pts; win rate 59.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 428+84.9% +36.3% 77.3% +66.7%
20-40 349+25.6% +7.7% 59.3% +18.3%
40-60 407+98.9% +119.7% 73.7% +78.2%
60-80 611+61.5% +33.2% 79.5% +44%
80-100 You are here1244+17.6% +11.5% 58% +1.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 152.68, at the 99.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+13.8%
Win rate 60.1% Excess +6.5%
323d
+61.7%
Win rate 80.2% Excess +51.9%
353d
Now
+18.2%
Win rate 58.2% Excess +9.2%
1283d
60-day momentum down
+17.6%
Win rate 69.8% Excess +11.7%
324d
+21.3%
Win rate 62.4% Excess +13.3%
319d
+12.1%
Win rate 64.8% Excess +3.7%
557d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1283 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.2%, win rate 58.2%, beat the market by 9.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.01%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +8.42 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.94%, win rate 56%, beating the market by +7.95 pts on average.

What does 創意 do? Company profile

半導體業；ASIC設計服務、SoC設計服務、矽智財與晶圓量產服務 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3443 對應證券為創意電子股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所掛牌交易之普通股。公司成立於1998年1月22日，總部位於新竹科學園區新竹市力行六路10號，上市日期為2006年11月3日，產業別為半導體業。依台灣證券交易所個股資訊，實收資本額為新台幣1,340,119,110元。2026年5月21日股東常會與董事會後，曾繁城退休卸任董事長，由張麗絲接任董事長；總經理為戴尚義。公司官網揭露其股票代號為3443並於台灣證券交易所交易。主要股東方面，創意官網主要股東名單（更新於2025年3月17日）列示台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司持股46,687,859股、34.84%，為最大股東；其後包括渣打國際商業銀行營業部受託保管小額世界基金公司投資專戶4.76%、新制勞工退休基金4.12%、富邦人壽2.94%、花旗受託保管挪威中央銀行投資專戶1.91%等。員工規模公司公開年報與徵才資料口徑不完全一致；外部徵才資料列示約850人，故本研究以約850人作為參考值並標示為非財報核心數字。

Business

創意電子為無晶圓廠ASIC與SoC設計服務公司，定位是台積電生態系內的先進客製化IC設計與量產服務供應商。主要業務分為兩大類：一是委託設計與矽智財（NRE & IP），包括規格導入、SoC整合、實體設計、DFT、低功耗設計、先進封裝設計、HBM、UCIe、GLink、SerDes等IP與設計服務；二是晶圓產品與量產服務（Turnkey），為客戶協調晶圓製造、封裝、測試、產品工程、品質可靠度與供應鏈管理。商業模式上，NRE通常在客戶專案設計與設計定案階段認列，毛利率較高且代表未來量產案能見度；Turnkey則在客戶晶片進入量產後隨出貨放大，營收規模較大但毛利率通常低於NRE。依公司2025年第4季財務摘要，2025全年合併營收為新台幣341.41億元、年增36%，創歷史新高；全年Turnkey營收為新台幣257.36億元，推算NRE與IP約新台幣84.05億元，約占全年營收24.6%，Turnkey約占75.4%。2026年第1季營收為新台幣114.48億元，年增63%；其中NRE & IP為新台幣16.43億元，Turnkey為新台幣98.05億元，Turnkey占比約85.6%。主要終端應用包括AI與HPC、高速網路與資料中心交換器、光通訊、車用電子（ADAS、自駕、數位座艙、雷達、光達）、儲存、消費性、工業與加密貨幣ASIC。主要客戶多為全球半導體公司、雲端服務供應商與系統廠；公司與媒體多以美系CSP、超大規模資料中心客戶或合作夥伴描述，具體大客戶名稱多未揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已完成：公司全年營收與EPS創歷史新高，全年營收新台幣341.41億元、年增36%，EPS為新台幣28.13元；第4季因CSP與加密貨幣Turnkey放量，單季營收達新台幣124.00億元，Turnkey占比提升但毛利率受產品組合影響下滑。2026年展望：截至2026年5月，創意單月營收新台幣46.74億元、年增132.13%，1至5月累計營收新台幣204.16億元、年增90.64%，顯示Turnkey放量動能強。管理層於2026年股東會表示，AI推論需求升溫，ASIC出貨成長率可望超越GPU，雲端服務、光通訊傳輸、車用電子等專案將挹注營收；公司也投入3奈米以下先進製程、高階封裝設計、竹南高速運算中心、CPO共同封裝光學、HBM4 IP、UCIe 64G與多晶片封裝能力。2027年展望：多家媒體與法人報導指出，美系CSP 3奈米CPU與AI加速器專案、以及新美系客戶專案可能在2027年接棒放量；此部分屬法人與媒體推估，非公司正式長期財測。2028年展望：公司未提供2028量化財測；合理產業推估是AI/HPC客製化晶片、2奈米與3奈米先進製程、CoWoS/SoIC/InFO等先進封裝、CPO、HBM4、UCIe與chiplet架構將延續為主要技術路線。潛在風險包括：Turnkey占比升高導致毛利率稀釋；先進製程與先進封裝產能、價格與良率受台積電及封測供應鏈影響；客戶集中與未揭露大客戶專案遞延風險；美中出口管制與地緣政治造成封測地點轉移或出貨遞延；ASIC設計定案失敗、先進IP驗證與良率風險；以及世芯、智原、Broadcom、Marvell、Socionext等同業在CSP ASIC案上的競爭。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 最大股東與主要晶圓代工／先進製程及3DFabric生態系核心夥伴；創意的Turnkey量產、先進製程與先進封裝路線高度依賴台積電生態系。
  • Arm Holdings plc 英國IP公司、美國NASDAQ上市；創意加入Arm Total Design生態系，使用Arm Neoverse CSS等CPU平台支援AI與雲端ASIC設計。
  • Synopsys, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市EDA供應商；公開成功案例顯示創意使用Synopsys自動化與實體設計相關工具提升晶片設計效率。
  • Cadence Design Systems, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市EDA供應商；為先進ASIC設計常用EDA與驗證工具供應商，屬創意所處設計服務上游工具鏈，具體採購金額未揭露。
  • 先進封裝與測試供應鏈 包含CoWoS、InFO、SoIC、封裝、測試與產品工程等供應鏈；公司提供封裝設計、測試、產品工程與供應鏈管理，但未完整揭露所有封測供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 未揭露美系雲端服務供應商（CSP） 媒體與法人報導指出創意受惠美系CSP 3奈米CPU與AI加速器ASIC專案；實際客戶名稱未由公司正式公開，屬高重要度但低透明度客戶群。
  • 緯穎科技股份有限公司 6669 台股上市雲端資料中心基礎架構供應商；2026年5月創意宣布與緯穎合作，整合旗艦級SoC設計、2.5D/3D封裝、機櫃級液冷與光學互連，服務超大規模AI資料中心基礎架構。
  • Lightmatter, Inc. 美國未上市光運算與矽光子公司；2026年1月宣布與創意合作，為AI hyperscalers提供共同封裝光學CPO解決方案。
  • VSORA SAS 法國未上市AI處理器公司；2025年11月宣布與創意合作推出Jotunn8資料中心AI推論處理器。
  • Ayar Labs, Inc. 美國未上市光I/O公司；2025年11月創意宣布與Ayar Labs推進超大規模運算CPO技術。

Competitors

  • 世芯電子股份有限公司（世芯-KY） 3661 台股上市ASIC設計服務同業，主攻HPC與雲端ASIC，與創意在先進製程CSP客製化晶片案競爭。
  • 智原科技股份有限公司 3035 台股上市ASIC設計服務與IP公司，為台灣主要設計服務競爭者之一，較多元涵蓋成熟與特殊製程、NRE與量產服務。
  • 巨有科技股份有限公司 8227 台股上櫃IC設計服務公司，屬ASIC與SoC設計服務族群，規模小於創意但在AI ASIC題材下具同業比較意義。
  • M31 Technology Corporation 6643 台股上櫃矽智財公司，與創意在部分IP、先進製程IP與設計生態系層面有競合關係。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市半導體公司，全球大型ASIC與網通晶片供應商，為CSP客製化AI晶片重要國際競爭者。
  • Marvell Technology, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市半導體公司，提供資料中心、網通與客製化ASIC方案，為AI客製化晶片國際競爭者。
  • Socionext Inc. 日本東京證券交易所上市ASIC與SoC設計服務公司，為全球設計服務同業。
Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.