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4109
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 加捷生醫 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 57th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 13th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 中國信託-嘉義 has accumulated 259 lots since the start (sold 15%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 富邦-三峽 peaked at 311 lots, has sold 78%, 69 left, ~3 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.55pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.87pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -496 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 中國信託-嘉義 +259
- 富邦-頭份 +233
- 美商高盛 +228
- 凱基-虎尾 +227
- 元大-內湖 +219
- 富邦-和美 +218
Distributing
- 富邦-三峽 69 left
- 華南永昌-新莊 19 left
- 群益金鼎-新竹 74 left
- 摩根大通 81 left
- 元大-蘆洲 59 left
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 9 left
Desks
- 聯邦-嘉義 -284
- 國泰-敦南 -265
- 台新 -188
- 凱基-台北 -169
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 456 | -21.2% | -24.3% | 16% | -55.1% |
| 20-40 | 194 | +1.2% | +3.2% | 56.2% | -12.2% |
| 40-60 | 382 | -1% | -3.5% | 39.8% | -10.5% |
| 60-80 | 350 | +0.7% | -4.7% | 26.3% | -11.2% |
| 80-100 | 434 | +29.8% | +44.9% | 56% | -22.6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 26.41, at the 12.9th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 497 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 10.1%, win rate 29.4%, lagged the market by 33.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.9%, win rate 30%, beating the market by -4.35 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.34%, win rate 40.3%, beating the market by +0.98 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.93%, win rate 39%, beating the market by -6.35 pts on average.
What does 加捷生醫 do? Company profile
Overview
4109 對應加捷生醫股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司統一編號 89415241，成立於 1995-05-06，2000-01-10 公開發行，2002-08-08 掛牌上櫃；總部位於高雄市三民區九如一路61號3樓。公司隸屬台鋼集團，官方網站稱旗下版圖跨足生技研發製造、傳銷通路、新零售電商、保險經紀與健康團膳。董事長：謝汶芳，係 2026-05-22 董事會推選接任，舊任為翁重鈞；總經理：曾茗絹；發言人：林慶弘。2025年第三季合併財報列示普通股股本新台幣11.87367億元；公開股東資料顯示 2025-03-25 主要股東包括百佳圓投資股份有限公司20,000,000股、持股16.84%，金智富資產管理股份有限公司9,800,000股、持股8.25%，謝金坤1,437,000股、持股1.21%，賴富敏1,400,000股、持股1.18%，富安德堡投資有限公司1,073,000股、蔡泰欣1,073,000股、友訊科技1,060,000股等。員工規模方面，104人力銀行母公司徵才頁揭露員工人數68人，但此數字不等同合併集團員工數。
Business
核心本業為以甲魚相關原料為特色的保健食品研發、製造與銷售，官方說明加捷生醫深耕甲魚精準保健超過30年，主力產品累積突破10億粒銷售，並擁有自建生物科技廠，通過ISO22000與HACCP國際認證；傳統通路以傳銷/經銷會員制度為主，近年增加電商與大眾消費品牌「台鋼生技」。集團另透過台鋼保險經紀經營人身保險及產物保險經紀業務；2024年取得米香食品與百千匯食品控制權，切入即食餐食製造、團體伙食承包與團膳市場。2025年前三季合併營收351,574千元，其中營養保健產品外部收入165,810千元、約47.16%，保險經紀業務47,397千元、約13.48%，即時餐食製造133,581千元、約38.00%，其他4,786千元、約1.36%。2024年全年合併營收537,070千元、稅後淨利216,150千元、EPS 2.16元；2025年全年合併營收484,053千元，年減9.63%；2026年1至5月累計營收218,732千元，年增6.71%。商業模式包括自有品牌保健食品製造銷售、經銷商/會員通路分潤、電商零售、保經佣金收入，以及團膳合約與即食餐食供應。主要終端應用為個人保健、家庭健康消費、企業員工餐食、產壽險保障需求。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年營運主軸為降低大型促銷活動依賴、整合集團新事業，全年營收484,053千元、年減9.63%，前三季營業利益10,797千元，低於2024年同期22,579千元，顯示轉型期收入基期與促銷策略調整帶來壓力，但毛利率仍維持約33%。2026年截至5月累計營收年增6.71%，短期觀察重點為保健食品通路活動、電商會員轉換、米香食品團膳訂單及台鋼集團健康/運動資源帶動品牌曝光。富果法說會摘要提到，公司展望聚焦米香食品新中央廚房投產，規模約為舊廠6至7倍，2026年全面營運後鎖定路竹科學園區團膳市場；另將加捷生技電商產品導入實體藥局通路，採線上線下整合策略。2027至2028年若米香新產能稼動率提升、藥局與電商通路複製成功、台鋼集團運動與健康資源持續導流，營收結構可能由單一保健食品傳銷，轉向保健品、團膳、保經多引擎；但公司尚未公開可查證之2027至2028量化財測。主要風險包括保健食品市場競爭激烈且法規/廣告宣稱受限、傳銷通路成長動能不確定、團膳新廠投資回收與稼動率風險、食安與原料品質風險、保險經紀佣金受保險商品與監理環境影響、轉投資與現增資金使用效益不如預期。
Supply Chain
- 杭州兆龍龔老漢生物科技有限公司 加捷集團大陸轉投資/孫公司，財報揭露業務為水產品科技開發、甲魚粉與甲魚油生產加工；非台股掛牌。
- 廈門正美濃生物科技有限公司 加捷集團大陸轉投資/孫公司，財報揭露業務為生物製品研發；非台股掛牌。
- 保健食品原料、包材與代工設備供應商 公司未在可查資料中完整揭露具名供應商；上游主要涉及甲魚/水產品原料、機能性食品原料、膠囊錠劑包材、食品製造設備與品質檢驗服務。
- 團膳食材供應商 米香食品與百千匯食品之上游為生鮮食材、調理食品、包材與物流供應商；可查公開資料未揭露主要具名供應商。
- 加捷生醫經銷商與會員 保健食品主要銷售通路之一，透過傳銷/經銷制度銷售予終端消費者；非台股掛牌實體。
- 加捷生醫官方電商平台與加捷MIT平台 新零售與電商通路，銷售葉黃素、益生菌、保健品等產品予終端消費者；非台股掛牌。
- 藥局與實體零售通路 法說會摘要提及加捷生技產品將由線上導入實體藥局通路；具體合作藥局名單未能由公開資料確認。
- 企業團膳客戶 米香食品提供客製化健康團膳與團體伙食承包服務，下游客戶為企業、園區或機構；公開資料未揭露主要具名客戶。
- 產壽險公司與保險客戶 台鋼保險經紀與國內多家產壽險公司合作，向個人或企業客戶提供保單規劃與經紀服務；公開資料未揭露完整合作保險公司名單。
Competitors
- 葡萄王生技 1707 台股上市公司，經營保健食品、益生菌與直銷/通路業務，與加捷生醫在機能保健食品及會員通路市場競爭。
- 大江生醫 8436 台股上櫃公司，保健食品與生技原料研發製造/CDMO業者，與加捷生醫在機能性食品開發與健康消費市場競爭。
- 中天生技 4128 台股上櫃公司，布局保健食品、生技產品與醫藥相關業務，與加捷生醫部分保健產品市場重疊。
- 生達化學製藥 1720 台股上市公司，除藥品外亦經營保健與營養補充相關產品，與加捷生醫在健康消費品通路有部分競爭。
- 佳格食品 1227 台股上市公司，營養食品、保健與家庭健康消費品品牌力強，與加捷生醫在大眾健康食品市場部分競爭。
- 統一企業 1216 台股上市公司，食品飲料與健康營養產品通路規模大，與加捷生醫在消費型營養/保健食品通路有間接競爭。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.