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5324

士開 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 士開 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 18Growth 24Momentum 53Chips 95

Is 士開 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 22th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 74th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 87th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 16.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.96
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-天母 holds 12,806 lots
  • sellers have 306 lots left, ~102 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-天母 has accumulated 12,806 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 283 lots, has sold 49%, 145 left, ~60 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.28pp, mid holders +0, retail -4.95pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -114 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-天母中國信託元大證券永豐金-市政國泰證券華南永昌-小港
Distributing
凱基-台北元大-木柵統一-基隆元大-敦化凱基-站前富邦-左營
Desks
own scale
富邦-公益玉山-士林元大-松山元大-蘆洲中正
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-天母 +12,806
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +956
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +330
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-市政 +329
    sold 4%
  • 國泰證券 +183
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-小港 +168
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 145 left
    sold 49%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 元大-木柵 51 left
    sold 64%· paused recently
  • 統一-基隆 56 left
    sold 47%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 元大-敦化 15 left
    sold 85%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 51 left
    sold 39%· ~102 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-左營 8 left
    sold 89%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-公益 -1,650
    unclassified
  • 玉山-士林 -1,243
    unclassified
  • 元大-松山 -629
    unclassified
  • 元大-蘆洲中正 -386
    unclassified
Still selling 306 lots ~102 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,076 absorbed / -100 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 8%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-31)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +1.79%, Excess +2.63%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；60-day: Win 35.3%, Sample 17, Median -4.71%, Excess -8.09%, Beat mkt rate 29.4%；120-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -5.92%, Excess -14.09%, Beat mkt rate 31.2%

120 days after: historical avg -6.2%

20-day +5.1%
60-day -0.99%
120-day -6.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
35.3%
43.8%
Sample
19
17
16
Median
+1.79%
-4.71%
-5.92%
Excess
+2.63%
-8.09%
-14.09%
Beat mkt rate
52.6%
29.4%
31.2%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 6.2%, lagged the market by 14.09 pts; win rate 43.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 152-69.8% -70.5% 0% -99.9%
20-40 4Insufficient data
40-60 84-2% -3.4% 25% -82.3%
60-80 211-17% -17.2% 11.8% -51.8%
80-100 You are here512+7.5% +5.9% 60.5% -42.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 39.44, at the 87.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-53.1%
Win rate 0% Excess -67.7%
32d
-17.9%
Win rate 7.5% Excess -28.9%
120d
Now
-1.5%
Win rate 39.6% Excess -20.9%
326d
60-day momentum down
-58.5%
Win rate 0% Excess -75.6%
124d
-1.6%
Win rate 35% Excess -36.4%
180d
+11.2%
Win rate 69.7% Excess -11.6%
300d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 326 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 1.5%, win rate 39.6%, lagged the market by 20.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.35%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -2.59 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

85 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.18%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by +5.4 pts on average.

What does 士開 do? Company profile

建材營造業 上櫃

Overview

5324 對應證券為櫃買中心上櫃普通股「士開」，公司全名士林開發股份有限公司。公開股市資料與公司基本資料顯示，公司登記成立日為 1984/01/23，公開發行日約 1992/10/23，上櫃掛牌日為 1997/01/30；公司網站則以士林開發品牌源起稱成立於 1990 年，具三十年以上建築開發經驗，推測係現行士林開發業務/品牌沿革與登記成立日口徑不同。總部/通訊地址為台北市中山北路六段90號8樓；董事長許玉山、總經理林信成；實收資本額約新台幣2,263,790,900元，已發行普通股226,379,090股。員工規模依公司年報合併統計，2024年底約300人、2025年3月31日約283人。主要股東依年報2025/03/28股東名簿：耀澤有限公司9.08%、銓聖投資股份有限公司9.00%、秋雨創新股份有限公司7.51%、振捷投資有限公司5.38%、和昇投資有限公司4.46%、協美實業股份有限公司4.41%、陳慧遊2.82%、國賓投資股份有限公司2.55%、賓士投資股份有限公司2.30%、徐堅貞2.18%。

Business

公司為營運公司，主業包含不動產開發、俱樂部、客房及餐飲。2024年度營收淨額新台幣2,591,833仟元，營收結構為營建收入1,918,373仟元、占74%；客房住宿421,891仟元、占16%；餐飲服務156,655仟元、占6%；會員服務68,942仟元、占3%；其他25,972仟元、占1%。主要產品/服務包括商務大樓與集合住宅開發、一般旅館客房與餐飲、俱樂部與餐廳中西式餐飲及會員服務。商業模式上，營建事業以大台北地區為優先市場，透過購地自建、地主合作興建、都市更新/危老重建方式取得案源，再進行市場研調、土地開發、規劃設計、行銷企劃、發包施工、完工交屋與售後服務；公司依規定不自行從事營造業，工程發包予合格營造廠。旅館與餐飲事業則以客房出租、餐飲供應、會議場地與會員服務為收入來源。主要客戶方面，建案銷售對象以自用型、置產型住宅買方及個人客戶為主，年報表示銷貨對象多屬不同個人，最近二年度無占比10%以上之具名客戶；旅館/餐飲下游客戶為散客、旅行團、企業活動與會員客群，訂房通路以官網及第三方網站為主。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以台北市核心地段都更/危老開發案為主軸。公司年報揭露之推案與開發進度包括：城心曜曜位於大同區、基地約1,009坪、總銷約60億元、已售約七成五，預估2027年中完工交屋；碧湖雲景位於內湖區、基地約928坪、總銷約55億元，2024年第三季已正式開工後潛銷，預估2029年完工交屋；信義安和位於大安區、基地約680坪、總銷約50億元，已送件報核並辦理都更程序；瑞安街案位於大安區、基地約529坪、總銷約30億元，屬都更168專案；中山北路六段案/士開157案位於士林區、基地約388坪、總銷約10億元，屬都更168專案；松德路案位於信義區、基地約1,127坪、總銷約60億元，並持續推動富錦街案、東豐街案、安和路案、信義象山案等都更整合。成長動能來自台北市精華區土地稀缺、老屋更新需求、家庭小型化/高齡化帶動都會區住宅剛性需求、綠建築與節能設計價值提升，以及旅遊復甦帶動住宿/餐飲需求。公司策略為聚焦台北市精華區，必要時擴及交通便利重劃區與重大建設周邊；產品以住宅為主，並爭取商辦/廠辦案件，提高產品附加價值與售後服務。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制、房地合一稅/平均地權條例/囤房稅等打炒房政策、2025至2027年新屋大量交屋造成供給壓力、利率與資金成本偏高、土地取得困難、營建原物料與工資高檔、缺工缺料、水電雙漲、ESG與碳成本、旅館供給增加與餐飲人力流動率高。2028以後實際入帳時點仍高度取決於都更審議、建照取得、施工進度、銷售速度與交屋時程。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 地主、個人地主、土地仲介、政府標售土地 不動產開發上游；土地來源包含國有財產署/政府標售、自行開發、仲介買賣、合建及都市更新權利人，非單一上市櫃供應商。
  • 達欣工程股份有限公司 2535 年報永續章節提及城心曜曜工地利害關係人為達欣工程；可視為營造承攬/工程施工上游之一，但年報主要供應商以D、E、F公司代號揭露，未完整公開具名供應商。
  • 建築材料供應商 年報稱建築材料均慎選國內外優良供應商，主要大宗建材多由上市、櫃公司供應，但未揭露具名廠商；包含鋼筋、水泥、混凝土、機電、水電、裝潢、低碳建材等。
  • 生鮮食品、飲料、客房用品供應商 旅館與餐飲事業上游；供應生鮮食材、飲料、一般用品與客房用品，年報稱供應情況穩定且與主要原料廠商長期合作。
  • 建築師事務所及設計團隊 都更與建案規劃設計上游；公司都市更新頁揭露PGA周簡建築師事務所、林秀芬建築師事務所、陳克聚建築師事務所、三門聯合建築師事務所等設計團隊，均非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 住宅與商辦買方/交屋客戶 不動產開發下游客戶；以個人自住、換屋、置產型買方為主，年報稱銷貨對象多屬不同個人，無占比10%以上之具名客戶。
  • 代銷業者及房屋仲介通路 不動產銷售通路；年報描述下游仲介商及代銷業者已形成完整通路，但未揭露士林開發合作之具名業者。
  • 旅館散客、旅行團、企業/會議客戶、會員 旅館、餐飲、俱樂部與會員服務下游客戶；非上市櫃公司。
  • 第三方訂房網站與官網通路 客房銷售通路；年報稱訂房管道以官網與其他第三方網站為主，未揭露具名平台；常見平台多為境外或非台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

Sources（8）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.