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5475

德宏 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 德宏 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 5Quality 65Growth 96Momentum 82Chips 83

Is 德宏 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 58th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 214.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.06
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 4,518 lots
  • sellers have 2,288 lots left, ~94 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +106% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 4,518 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-站前 peaked at 1,589 lots, has sold 29%, 1,123 left, ~94 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.98pp, mid holders -9, retail +2.55pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,444 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利國票-敦北法人永豐金證券港商野村永豐金-信義台新證券
Distributing
凱基-站前宏遠證券國泰證券統一新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-內湖
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎元大證券玉山證券福邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +4,518
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-敦北法人 +1,648
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金證券 +1,541
    sold 12%
  • 港商野村 +782
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-信義 +649
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +633
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 凱基-站前 1,123 left
    sold 29%· ~94 sessions to clear
  • 宏遠證券 248 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 國泰證券 356 left
    sold 70%· ~39 sessions to clear
  • 統一 217 left
    sold 80%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 105 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-內湖 298 left
    sold 59%· ~93 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -2,188
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -1,437
    unclassified
  • 玉山證券 -1,182
    unclassified
  • 福邦證券 -1,061
    unclassified
Still selling 2,288 lots ~94 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,222 absorbed / -1,026 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -822 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 214.95%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

72 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.3%, Sample 71, Median +1.9%, Excess +7%, Beat mkt rate 52.1%；60-day: Win 60.9%, Sample 69, Median +4.35%, Excess +31.93%, Beat mkt rate 53.6%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 66, Median +2.2%, Excess +53.47%, Beat mkt rate 47%

120 days after: historical avg +60.7%

20-day +8.44%
60-day +36.75%
120-day +60.7%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.3%
60.9%
50%
Sample
71
69
66
Median
+1.9%
+4.35%
+2.2%
Excess
+7%
+31.93%
+53.47%
Beat mkt rate
52.1%
53.6%
47%

Over 66 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 60.7%, beat the market by 53.47 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 118+185.5% -50.3% 48.3% +133.1%
20-40 99+218.5% +193.2% 94.9% +133.3%
40-60 74+153.8% +109.3% 95.9% +68.7%
60-80 7Insufficient data
80-100 You are here52-59.2% -60.7% 0% -50.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 997.83, at the 98.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-36.9%
Win rate 3.2% Excess -29.5%
63d
+96.2%
Win rate 67.1% Excess +52.9%
70d
Now
-7.2%
Win rate 30.9% Excess -12.3%
55d
60-day momentum down
+233.9%
Win rate 44.7% Excess +192.8%
228d
+221.7%
Win rate 61.1% Excess +165.5%
36d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 55 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 7.2%, win rate 30.9%, lagged the market by 12.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +60.79%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +50.81 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +24.24%, win rate 51.6%, beating the market by +19.99 pts on average.

What does 德宏 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；PCB上游材料／玻璃纖維布 上櫃（證券櫃檯買賣中心）

Overview

德宏工業股份有限公司成立於1997年3月21日，總部與登記地址位於桃園市楊梅區楊湖路二段718號，1999年3月29日公開發行，2001年1月16日上櫃。公司英文簡稱GLOTECH，統一編號97178087，董事長劉暉麟，總經理劉志浩，發言人陳源水。實收資本額約新台幣12.71億元，已發行普通股127,127,017股，其中含私募5,600,000股，無特別股；簽證會計師事務所為安永聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為中國信託商業銀行代理部。公開資料顯示員工約180人。主要子公司包括英屬維京群島GLOTECH INDUSTRIAL CORP.（玻璃布銷售）、德宏電子（蘇州）有限公司（玻璃布生產銷售）、GLOTECH INTERNATIONAL CORP.（CAYMAN）（投資業務）。董監與經理人持股方面，可確認董事長劉暉麟、董事劉志浩為主要自然人持股者；公開公司登記資料顯示劉暉麟持有約6,633,300股、劉志浩約6,044,527股，但主要股東完整名冊未能由公開網頁完整確認。

Business

德宏為台灣主要電子級玻纖布廠之一，主要從事電子級玻璃纖維布之研發、生產、製造及銷售，玻纖布用於銅箔基板、PCB、高頻高速板、封裝基板補強與絕緣材料。MoneyDJ資料指出2024年營收比重為玻璃纖維布97%、其他3%；銷售地區以亞洲為主，2024年亞洲約97%、台灣約3%。公司產品包括電子級玻纖布、工業級玻纖布、電子級石英纖維紗、工業級石英纖維紗、電子級石英纖維布、工業級石英纖維布與LPG複合材料氣瓶。官方網站揭露電子級玻纖布可用於FR-4銅箔基板、高頻高速板、ABF／BT封裝基板、手機與5G天線基板、車用ECU與毫米波雷達、AI伺服器高速互連板、衛星通訊高頻基板；石英纖維紗與石英纖維布主打超低介電損耗、高熱穩定性、高純度二氧化矽與高頻通訊／AI伺服器／半導體封裝應用；複合材料氣瓶由2015年成立之德宇複合材料相關業務延伸，產品涵蓋LPG、CNG與工業壓縮氣體用Type IV非金屬複合氣瓶。商業模式以材料製造銷售為核心，透過台灣與蘇州基地供應全球客戶；Investing.com資料稱主要客戶分布於中國大陸、歐洲、美國、日本、韓國及台灣，但具體客戶名單未公開揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要展望可分為三條主線。第一，AI伺服器、HPC、高速網通、車用毫米波雷達、衛星通訊與高階PCB升級，推升低介電、低損耗、低熱膨脹係數材料需求，玻纖布成為PCB與封裝基板上游關鍵材料；2025年以來市場多次報導玻纖布供給吃緊、報價上行，德宏2025年營收年增明顯，2026年5月自結單月營收約新台幣1.81億元、年增約214.8%，稅後淨利約5,500萬元、EPS約0.43元，顯示景氣與產品組合改善已開始反映。第二，公司新產品包含石英纖維紗／布，官方產品資料顯示其具低介電損耗、高純度與高溫穩定特性，可切入AI伺服器高速互連、6G通訊、高頻高速PCB與半導體封裝基板；若認證、良率與量產穩定度提升，有機會提高產品組合價值。第三，複合材料氣瓶與工業級石英／玻纖應用可提供非PCB材料的長期選項，但目前營收主體仍高度集中於玻纖布。主要風險包括：高階玻纖紗供給與認證掌握度仍以日系廠商及少數大廠為主；中國大陸玻纖布與上游紗廠擴產可能造成報價循環反轉；公司規模較小、歷史獲利波動大，2025全年EPS仍為虧損，估值與股價波動風險高；下游客戶若去庫存、AI伺服器資本支出放緩、銅箔基板與PCB廠議價壓力升高，均可能使毛利率回落。2027至2028年的具體營收與獲利目標未見公司公開量化指引，因此以上屬基於產品與產業趨勢的研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣玻璃工業 1802 電子級玻纖紗／高階玻纖材料供應鏈代表廠，市場報導指出高階AI與高頻高速用玻纖紗台灣廠商中較受下游看好者包含台玻；是否為德宏直接供應商未公開確認。
  • 富喬工業 1815 玻纖紗與玻纖布同業及上游材料鏈相關公司，市場常與德宏同列玻纖布／AI PCB材料族群；是否為直接供應關係未公開確認。
  • 日東紡 日本上市玻纖材料大廠，報導指出AI與高頻高速用最高階玻纖紗在載板與PCB端仍以日東紡為主；非台股掛牌，且與德宏之直接供應關係未公開確認。
  • 偶合劑及化學助劑供應商 MoneyDJ資料列示德宏主要原料包含玻纖紗、偶合劑等；具體供應商名稱未公開揭露。
  • 高純度石英原料及熔融抽絲設備供應商 石英纖維紗／布需高純度石英原料與高溫熔融抽絲製程設備；具體供應商未公開揭露。
Downstream
  • 台光電子材料 2383 高頻高速銅箔基板與AI伺服器材料代表廠，屬德宏玻纖布終端應用之下游CCL族群；是否為直接客戶未公開確認。
  • 聯茂電子 6213 銅箔基板廠，玻纖布為CCL關鍵補強與絕緣材料；是否為德宏直接客戶未公開確認。
  • 台燿科技 6274 高頻高速銅箔基板廠，屬玻纖布下游應用鏈；是否為直接客戶未公開確認。
  • 南亞塑膠工業 1303 同時具銅箔基板與玻纖布相關材料布局，既可能為同業競爭者，也屬PCB材料鏈下游客戶族群；與德宏直接交易未公開確認。
  • 欣興電子 3037 ABF載板與PCB大廠，德宏電子級玻纖布與石英纖維布官方列示可用於封裝基板與高階PCB；是否直接供貨未公開確認。
  • 景碩科技 3189 BT／ABF封裝基板廠，屬玻纖布與高階石英纖維材料終端應用鏈；是否直接客戶未公開確認。

Competitors

  • 南亞塑膠工業 1303 MoneyDJ列為德宏玻纖布主要競爭對手之一；台股上市。
  • 台灣玻璃工業 1802 台灣玻纖材料代表廠，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭對手之一；台股上市。
  • 建榮工業材料 5340 玻纖布／電子材料同業，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭對手之一；台股上櫃。
  • 富喬工業 1815 玻纖紗／玻纖布同業，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭對手之一；台股上市。
  • 日東紡 日本玻纖材料龍頭，報導指出高階AI與高頻高速用玻纖紗仍具領先地位；非台股掛牌。
  • 橡樹 MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商之一，但公開資料未能確認其台股掛牌代號，故stock_id設為null。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.