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5609

中菲行 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中菲行 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 81Quality 57Growth 80Momentum 53Chips 6

Is 中菲行 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 40th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 6th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 27th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 39.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.14
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 元大-仁愛 holds 358 lots
  • sellers have 372 lots left, ~44 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-仁愛 has accumulated 358 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 268 lots, has sold 62%, 103 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders -3, retail +1.00pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -347 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-仁愛台灣企銀亞東元大證券(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐永豐金-匯立
Distributing
美商高盛凱基-站前臺銀統一-員林玉山-左營元大-南崁
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀台新元大-內湖民權台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-仁愛 +358
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣企銀 +317
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 亞東 +283
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +265
    sold 0%· still adding
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +233
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +194
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 103 left
    sold 62%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 74 left
    sold 66%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀 48 left
    sold 51%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 統一-員林 30 left
    sold 58%· paused recently
  • 玉山-左營 44 left
    sold 36%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • 元大-南崁 35 left
    sold 30%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -801
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台新 -616
    unclassified
  • 元大-內湖民權 -368
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -349
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 372 lots ~44 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,533 absorbed / -320 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -34 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 39.02%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

69 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.7%, Sample 63, Median +0.95%, Excess +1.21%, Beat mkt rate 41.3%；60-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 63, Median -0.63%, Excess +2.17%, Beat mkt rate 36.5%；120-day: Win 41.3%, Sample 63, Median -1.79%, Excess +2.33%, Beat mkt rate 31.7%

120 days after: historical avg +7.16%

20-day +2.2%
60-day +4.96%
120-day +7.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.7%
44.4%
41.3%
Sample
63
63
63
Median
+0.95%
-0.63%
-1.79%
Excess
+1.21%
+2.17%
+2.33%
Beat mkt rate
41.3%
36.5%
31.7%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.16%, beat the market by 2.33 pts; win rate 41.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1261+51.1% +35.5% 78.5% +32.2%
20-40 You are here700+15% +4% 58.9% +4.5%
40-60 564+10% +4.6% 64.7% -10.8%
60-80 302+5.8% +7.5% 57.9% -6.5%
80-100 187+21.9% +18.8% 100% +7.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 9.79, at the 27.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+20%
Win rate 81.4% Excess +10.1%
1115d
+4.4%
Win rate 55.1% Excess -7%
648d
+0.4%
Win rate 37.9% Excess -7.4%
224d
60-day momentum down
+16.8%
Win rate 55% Excess +12.7%
605d
+5.7%
Win rate 59.2% Excess -1.1%
395d
+12.2%
Win rate 74.1% Excess +5.3%
147d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1115 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20%, win rate 81.4%, beat the market by 10.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.7%, win rate 71%, beating the market by +7.31 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.16%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +0.9 pts on average.

What does 中菲行 do? Company profile

航運業／國際物流、航空與海運貨運承攬 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

5609 對應證券為中菲行國際物流股份有限公司，英文名稱 Dimerco Express Corporation，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司現行法定主體於 1985/08/02 設立，集團源流可追溯至創辦人錢堯懷於 1971/07/15 在台北創立中菲行；股票於 2001/10/15 上櫃，為台灣較早掛牌的國際貨運承攬公司。總部位於台北市內湖區民權東路六段160號11樓。依公開股市資料，資本額約新台幣14.29億元，已發行普通股約142,884,000股。2025年起董事長為錢文君；公司官網列施振昇為執行長，公開股市資料列總經理為施振昇。官方資料顯示全球行銷服務網路超過160個服務營運單位，遍佈亞太、北美與歐洲等17國，並有超過200個策略夥伴服務營運單位；經營團隊頁亦提及超過150個辦事處、80個合約物流倉與逾200家策略夥伴。母公司年報揭露113年第1季止員工人數148人；此數字看起來是母公司口徑，非全球合併集團總員工數。主要股東方面，112年年報以113/04/07股東名冊揭露持股5%以上者為龍翰興業股份有限公司7,643,579股、持股5.43%，貿華投資股份有限公司7,431,038股、持股5.28%；另錢堯懷持股3.76%、宇謀有限公司2.63%，未達5%。2026/06/01股東會通過2025年度每股配發現金股利5.6元。

Business

中菲行為第三方國際物流與貨運承攬業者，核心業務包括國際空運含包機服務、國際海運、多式聯運、跨境陸路卡車與鐵路、合同物流、倉儲配送、中國國內運輸、報關報檢、貨運保險及全球物流管理顧問。其商業模式不是自有航空公司或船公司，而是透過與航空公司、船公司、鐵路、陸運與海外代理／自營據點合作，為出口商、製造商與跨國企業整合艙位、運輸、通關、倉儲、配送、貨況追蹤與供應鏈可視化服務，賺取承攬、物流服務與管理加值收入。2025年前三季合併財報收入拆分為空運承攬新台幣139.71億元、約64.1%，海運承攬68.50億元、約31.4%，其他9.74億元、約4.5%；2024年前三季則為空運約58.8%、海運約35.2%、其他約6.0%，顯示空運為主要收入來源。客戶終端產業依112年年報之2023年收益分配，包括半導體24.6%、高科技電子／電腦及周邊19.3%、交通運輸14.6%、工具機材8.6%、成衣及紡織品4.7%、原物料4.6%、通訊3.3%、零售3.3%、醫療設備3.1%、汽車零配件2.5%。公司差異化重點在亞洲起家的國際網絡、高科技與時效關鍵貨物空運、半導體與電子供應鏈經驗，以及自行研發的 Dimerco Value Plus System、MyDimerco、POMS訂單管理、eWMS、eCallFreight、RPA與AI文件／航班／船班資料處理工具，用以提高貨況可視化、訂艙、倉儲與供應鏈管理效率。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能來自AI伺服器、半導體、電子零組件與高價值高時效貨物的跨境供應鏈重組。公司2025年法說資料指出，2026年貨運市場整體審慎樂觀，空運需求受AI、半導體、電子零組件與電商推動，亞太往北美與歐洲航線持續成長；China+與Taiwan+策略使製造逐步轉移至東南亞與印度，增加東南亞、印度與台灣至北美／歐洲的空運需求。2026年4月與5月官方營收公告顯示，4月營收28.40億元、年增12%，1至4月營收98.91億元、年增3.8%；5月營收32.40億元、年增39%，創2022年9月以來新高，1至5月營收131.32億元、年增10.7%，並明確提到半導體與AI伺服器客戶出貨需求支撐，空運貨量年增近30%，1至5月空運貨量約年增20%、海運貨量近10%。公司2026股東會揭示未來重點為深化全球營運網絡、跨產品與跨區域整合、強化AI與數位化應用、人才與全球組織協同、風險管理與財務治理，並把AI導入訂艙、文件處理、貨況追蹤與風險管理。擴張與新服務方面，法說資料提到新加坡機場物流園區自由貿易區35,000平方英尺倉庫、舊金山倉庫擴建、策略型包機、保稅倉、自貿區、印度與東南亞供應鏈設置、關稅退稅與合規諮詢等。主要風險包括全球景氣與終端需求波動、空海運價下行或艙位錯置、紅海與中東地緣政治、荷姆茲海峽與燃油／保險成本、關稅政策與貿易合規不確定性、匯率波動、供應鏈去全球化造成路線重組、港口壅塞與準班率不足、資訊安全與客戶資料保護。2027至2028的具體財測未見公司公開量化指引，因此相關展望屬依公司法說、營收公告與產業趨勢延伸的定性推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中華航空 2610 台股上市航空公司；屬空運承攬上游運力供應商類型，中菲行年報歷史沿革多次提及與中華航空等航空公司往來及獲獎，現行個別採購金額未揭露。
  • 長榮航空 2618 台股上市航空公司；屬空運艙位與航空貨運運力供應商類型，中菲行過往年報沿革提及與長榮航空等航空公司合作或獲獎，現行個別採購金額未揭露。
  • 國泰航空貨運 香港上市集團旗下航空貨運供應商；中菲行公開資料提到與國泰航空貨運推動永續航空燃料SAF方案，屬航空運力與永續物流合作夥伴。
  • 長榮海運 2603 台股上市貨櫃航運公司；屬海運承攬上游船公司運力供應商類型，未查得中菲行對單一船公司採購占比。
  • 陽明海運 2609 台股上市貨櫃航運公司；屬海運承攬上游船公司運力供應商類型，未查得中菲行對單一船公司採購占比。
  • 萬海航運 2615 台股上市貨櫃航運公司；屬海運承攬上游船公司運力供應商類型，未查得中菲行對單一船公司採購占比。
  • 陸運、鐵路、報關、倉儲與海外代理服務商 中菲行官方公司概況稱透過策略聯盟與航空公司、船公司、鐵路與陸路運輸公司建立夥伴關係；多數為各國在地業者或未上市公司，個別名稱與採購占比未公開。
Downstream
  • 半導體產業客戶 終端客戶產業；112年年報揭露2023年收益中半導體占24.6%，公司2026年5月營收公告也稱半導體客戶出貨需求支撐成長；個別客戶名稱未公開。
  • AI伺服器與高效能運算硬體供應鏈 終端應用客戶；2025法說資料舉例服務台灣頂尖遊戲與高效能運算硬體製造商及AI伺服器零件製造商，但未揭露客戶名稱，故stock_id填null。
  • 高科技電子、電腦及周邊設備客戶 終端客戶產業；112年年報揭露2023年收益占19.3%，為中菲行空運與供應鏈管理主要服務對象之一，個別客戶名稱未公開。
  • 交通運輸、工具機、醫療設備、汽車零配件與成衣紡織客戶 終端客戶產業組合；112年年報揭露交通運輸14.6%、工具機材8.6%、醫療設備3.1%、汽車零配件2.5%、成衣及紡織品4.7%，個別客戶名稱未公開。
  • 跨境電商與零售客戶 終端應用與通路客戶；年報列跨境電商物流整合服務及零售類收益占3.3%，個別平台或品牌名稱未公開。

Competitors

  • 台驊控股 2636 台股上市綜合物流與海空運承攬業者；多篇產業報導與同業資料將其與中菲行、捷迅並列為貨攬主要同業。
  • 捷迅 2643 台股上櫃國際物流與空海運承攬業者；MoneyDJ同業資料列其空運與海運競爭同業包括中菲行、台驊及國際快遞物流集團。
  • 遠雄港 5607 台股上櫃航空自由貿易港區與航空物流相關公司；2026年產業報導將其與中菲行、台驊、捷迅列為AI供應鏈運送受惠業者。
  • 嘉里大榮 2608 台股上市物流與貨運配送公司；雖偏國內路運與配送，但在台灣貨運倉儲與物流服務市場具競爭關係。
  • 榮運 2607 台股上市貨櫃集散、倉儲與物流服務公司；在貨運倉儲與整合物流市場具部分競爭關係。
  • DHL 國際大型物流與快遞集團，非台股掛牌；在國際空海運承攬、合同物流與供應鏈管理服務與中菲行競爭。
  • Kuehne+Nagel（德迅） 瑞士上市全球貨運承攬與合同物流集團，非台股掛牌；在高科技、空海運與全球供應鏈服務與中菲行競爭。
  • Expeditors International 美國上市國際貨運承攬與報關服務公司，非台股掛牌；在跨太平洋與高科技供應鏈物流市場具競爭關係。
  • DSV 丹麥上市全球運輸與物流集團，非台股掛牌；在空運、海運與供應鏈管理服務與中菲行競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.