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6257

矽格 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 矽格 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 33Quality 84Growth 68Momentum 92Chips 74

Is 矽格 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 64th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.28
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 7,360 lots
  • sellers have 1,238 lots left, ~280 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +55% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 7,360 lots since the start (sold 23%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 富邦-台北 peaked at 2,017 lots, has sold 79%, 418 left, ~139 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -9.82pp, mid holders +1, retail +9.16pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -13,568 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球台新-佳里香港上海匯豐國泰-敦南港商麥格理
Distributing
富邦-台北國泰證券新光-台中永豐金-桃園華南永昌-桃園玉山證券
Desks
own scale
永豐金證券台新-台北元大證券港商野村
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +7,360
    sold 23%
  • 花旗環球 +2,846
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-佳里 +2,628
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +1,310
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +1,144
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +1,098
    sold 16%

Distributing

  • 富邦-台北 418 left
    sold 79%· ~139 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 285 left
    sold 79%· ~259 sessions to clear
  • 新光-台中 526 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-桃園 388 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-桃園 209 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 玉山證券 70 left
    sold 84%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金證券 -9,005
    unclassified
  • 台新-台北 -7,487
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -6,640
    unclassified
  • 港商野村 -5,729
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 1,238 lots ~280 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,637 absorbed / -422 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -13,417 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 23.7%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

83 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 66.2%, Sample 65, Median +1.71%, Excess +1.05%, Beat mkt rate 56.9%；60-day: Win 59.4%, Sample 64, Median +3.01%, Excess +2.54%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 68.8%, Sample 64, Median +8.86%, Excess +2.2%, Beat mkt rate 51.6%

120 days after: historical avg +7.91%

20-day +2.26%
60-day +5.08%
120-day +7.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.2%
59.4%
68.8%
Sample
65
64
64
Median
+1.71%
+3.01%
+8.86%
Excess
+1.05%
+2.54%
+2.2%
Beat mkt rate
56.9%
50%
51.6%

Over 64 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.91%, beat the market by 2.2 pts; win rate 68.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 409+27.5% +31.1% 93.4% +8%
20-40 408+28.1% +24.7% 77% +13.5%
40-60 490+19.4% +16.7% 68.4% +4.5%
60-80 523+24.9% +19.9% 81.3% +9.2%
80-100 You are here1211+19.2% +16.1% 72.2% +2.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 31.99, at the 99.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+9.4%
Win rate 76.6% Excess +3.6%
231d
+10.4%
Win rate 81.5% Excess +1.9%
405d
Now
+14.2%
Win rate 73.5% Excess +3.6%
1379d
60-day momentum down
+10.7%
Win rate 73.6% Excess +2.9%
443d
+7.1%
Win rate 56.2% Excess +2%
384d
+10.9%
Win rate 78.4% Excess +5.2%
319d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1379 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 14.2%, win rate 73.5%, beat the market by 3.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.39%, win rate 71.7%, beating the market by +2.32 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.32%, win rate 63.9%, beating the market by +2.54 pts on average.

What does 矽格 do? Company profile

半導體業；IC封裝測試代工（OSAT） 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6257 對應矽格股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司登記成立日為1988/12/15，官網沿革另列1996年 Founded，2003/08/25掛牌上市。總部與主要地址為新竹縣竹東鎮北興路一段436號，主要據點包含竹東北興廠、中興廠、湖口一廠、湖口二廠，並有台星科、矽格聯測、誠遠科技、崇碁科技等集團/關係據點。董事長暨執行長為黃興陽，副董事長暨總經理暨營運長為葉燦鍊；發言人為陳祺昌。實收資本額約新台幣48.39億元，已發行普通股約4.839億股。2025年全年合併營收195.87億元、年增約7.5%，歸屬母公司淨利約29.5億元，EPS 6.14元；2026年第1季EPS 2.10元，獲利創同期高。主要股東基準日2025/03/31之前十名包含元大臺灣價值高息ETF專戶3.46%、焱元投資3.01%、仲利投資2.09%、外資保管專戶、黃興陽1.55%、新制勞工退休基金、邱明春等。員工規模公開資料不完全一致，人力銀行資料約2,400人；公司中興三廠計畫預計新增約1,200個工作機會。

Business

矽格是半導體封裝和測試代工服務供應商（OSAT），核心商業模式為承接IC設計公司、IDM、晶圓代工/封裝客戶之委外測試與部分封裝、後段服務，按測試時數、測試機台稼動、封裝/後段製程服務收取代工收入。2025年度產品別營收結構：測試15,839,349千元、占80.87%；封裝3,590,987千元、占18.33%；其他156,860千元、占0.8%，顯示公司以測試為主、封裝為輔。服務內容涵蓋晶圓測試（CP/wafer sort）、成品測試（FT/final test）、SFT/SLT系統級測試、Burn-in預燒、Laser repair、DPS後段服務、WLCSP、bumping、RF/混合訊號/邏輯/記憶體IC測試、AI/HPC/ASIC/矽光子/高速網通晶片測試、自製RF SoC測試設備與測試程式開發。2025年前三季依客戶應用營收占比為智慧手機33%、網通/物聯網22%、AI/ASIC/矽光子/高速運算21%、消費電子/智慧家庭17%、車用及醫療7%。客戶方面，公司未完整揭露名單；市場報導指出全球前十大IC設計公司中有六家為其客戶，包含聯發科、瑞昱、立錡、矽成等，前五大客戶占營收約六成，此部分屬媒體資訊，非公司逐一具名揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司營收創歷史新高，主要受AI晶片、HPC、高速網通、AI手機、手機晶片投片、主流記憶體回溫帶動；全年資本支出由35.37億元追加至47億元，方向為AI手機、AI伺服器、ASIC、矽光子、網通晶片測試設備與自動化。2026年：公司已將資本支出由約59億元上調至88億元，主要增加先進製程測試設備；湖口二廠預計2026下半年加入生產，中興三廠進度超前，AI、ASIC、光通訊晶片、HPC、手機晶片與網通晶片為重點。2027年：中興三廠原規劃2027年第1季完工、後續量產，總樓板面積36,340平方公尺，投資約26億元，導入先進測試、自動化與AI智慧工廠，目標客群鎖定AI、ASIC、車用IC；市場法說摘要提到公司爭取提前完工，若單一生產樓層滿載，可能每月增加約1億元營收，但此為法說摘要資料，需以公司後續公告為準。2028年：若AI ASIC、CPO/矽光子、HPC、Wi-Fi 7/8、車用與醫療測試需求延續，矽格測試營收占比與高階測試毛利結構有望受惠；但需留意高資本支出折舊壓力、先進測試設備到位與客戶驗證時程、匯率、客戶庫存調整、半導體景氣循環、主要客戶集中、海外大型客戶訂單真實性與持續性、同業擴產造成價格競爭，以及AI/矽光子技術路線變化。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 愛德萬測試（Advantest） 半導體測試機主要國際供應商，日本上市公司；屬矽格所處測試產業的關鍵設備上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • 泰瑞達（Teradyne） 半導體自動測試設備主要國際供應商，美國上市公司；屬測試產業上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • Keysight Technologies 高速/射頻/通訊量測設備供應商，美國上市公司；與RF、網通、矽光子測試能力相關，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • 旺矽科技 6223 台股上櫃，探針卡與測試介面廠；屬IC測試供應鏈上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • 中華精測 6510 台股上市，探針卡、測試板與測試介面供應商；屬IC測試供應鏈上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • 穎崴科技 6515 台股上市，IC測試座與測試介面供應商；屬高階測試供應鏈上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
  • 雍智科技 6683 台股上櫃，測試介面與測試板供應商；屬IC測試供應鏈上游，未確認為矽格直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 聯發科 2454 台股上市IC設計公司；媒體報導列為矽格客戶，應用涵蓋手機、網通、AI/ASIC相關晶片測試。
  • 瑞昱半導體 2379 台股上市IC設計公司；媒體報導列為矽格客戶，與網通、音訊、PC周邊等IC測試需求相關。
  • 立錡科技 電源管理IC公司，已併入聯發科、非獨立台股掛牌；媒體報導列為矽格客戶。
  • 矽成（ISSI） 記憶體IC公司，非台股掛牌；媒體報導列為矽格客戶。
  • Marvell Technology 美國上市半導體公司；市場報導稱與矽格CPO/光通訊測試需求相關，未經公司正式具名確認。
  • Lumentum 美國上市光通訊元件公司；市場報導稱與矽格CPO/光通訊測試需求相關，未經公司正式具名確認。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.