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9906

欣巴巴 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 欣巴巴 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 39Quality 92Growth 89Momentum 39Chips 4

Is 欣巴巴 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.0%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 38th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 56th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -9.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 75.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.77
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-三多 holds 2,233 lots
  • sellers have 479 lots left, ~80 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-三多 has accumulated 2,233 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 412 lots, has sold 41%, 243 left, ~41 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.51pp, mid holders +0, retail -2.83pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -522 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-三多國泰-台南元大-三民元大證券中國信託-高雄凱基-新莊
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利元大-台北美林元大-西屯兆豐-來福永豐金證券
Desks
own scale
永豐金-北高雄第一金-忠孝富邦-中壢元大-文心
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-三多 +2,233
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-台南 +1,303
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 元大-三民 +929
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +143
    sold 7%
  • 中國信託-高雄 +47
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-新莊 +44
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 243 left
    sold 41%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 元大-台北 177 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 美林 86 left
    sold 47%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 元大-西屯 48 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-來福 50 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 28 left
    sold 54%· ~28 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-北高雄 -1,370
    unclassified
  • 第一金-忠孝 -309
    unclassified
  • 富邦-中壢 -190
    unclassified
  • 元大-文心 -137
    unclassified
Still selling 479 lots ~80 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +546 absorbed / -223 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -358 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 75.87%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

80 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 72, Median -1.01%, Excess -1.1%, Beat mkt rate 36.1%；60-day: Win 41.4%, Sample 70, Median -3.08%, Excess +1.5%, Beat mkt rate 41.4%；120-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 68, Median -3.8%, Excess +3.47%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%

120 days after: historical avg +7.59%

20-day -0.18%
60-day +4.85%
120-day +7.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
41.4%
41.2%
Sample
72
70
68
Median
-1.01%
-3.08%
-3.8%
Excess
-1.1%
+1.5%
+3.47%
Beat mkt rate
36.1%
41.4%
41.2%

Over 68 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.59%, beat the market by 3.47 pts; win rate 41.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 306+74.9% +32% 93.8% +48.5%
40-60 You are here658+123.1% +48.7% 56.7% +81.8%
60-80 394+25.1% -15.3% 24.4% +11.8%
80-100 257-31.6% -50.7% 17.1% -54%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.89, at the 55.8th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(3d)
Now
+62.1%
Win rate 67.6% Excess +45.1%
516d
+5.6%
Win rate 21.6% Excess -0.8%
255d
60-day momentum down
+9.1%
Win rate 87.7% Excess -7.4%
73d
+37.4%
Win rate 30.1% Excess +17.2%
637d
-6.9%
Win rate 21.9% Excess -15%
251d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 516 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 62.1%, win rate 67.6%, beat the market by 45.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.36%, win rate 57.7%, beating the market by +18.36 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.9%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by -0.95 pts on average.

What does 欣巴巴 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業 上市

Overview

9906 對應證券為欣巴巴事業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於1967/01/16，前身為興達股份有限公司，1990/12/15上市，2013年前後轉型為以不動產開發為核心的建商。總部位於高雄市前鎮區民權二路6號27樓。董事長為黃烱輝，總經理為張宏圖，發言人李鎮宇兼財務長。實收資本額903,763,580元，已發行普通股90,376,358股；簽證會計師事務所為安永聯合會計師事務所。員工規模方面，公開招募平台揭露約120至140人，非年報正式口徑，故僅作區間參考。主要股東與控制結構：113年報揭露董事長席次由辰龍投資股份有限公司代表，該法人於114/4/27持有36,938,622股、約40.87%；辰龍投資主要股東為允達國際、元達國際、心達國際；捷偉投資亦為董事法人股東。第三方股市資料顯示董監事及大股東持股比重甚高，但此數字需以股東名冊或最新年報再確認。

Business

欣巴巴主要從事不動產開發、住宅與商業大樓興建、出售及出租，並包含室內裝潢設計施工等。營收結構以不動產開發出售為主，MoneyDJ整理指出不動產開發出售、出租約占營收100%；公司官網主業亦列為興建商業大樓及國民住宅、出售出租。商業模式為購地自建或合建分售，委託營造廠興建，透過預售與成屋銷售認列營收；產品多鎖定首購、首換與剛性需求族群，規劃以2房、2+1房、3房及雙衛浴格局為主。近年推案與入帳區域以台南、高雄、屏東為核心，同時保留北部成屋或合建案。113年度營收43.746億元、年增17.35%，稅後淨利5.72億元，EPS 6.55元；成長來源包括桃園龜山「欣時代」、台南「欣府城一品樓」完工入帳，以及台北北投「曉陽明2奇岩欣境」、新北三重「欣世代世紀館」成屋銷售。2025年全年營收第三方資料約12.96億元、EPS約0.09元，明顯受政策、風災與交屋時點影響；2026年1至5月累計營收約10.90億元、年增590.81%，主因新個案持續入帳。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點在建案交屋節奏、南部科技聚落帶動剛需，以及央行信用管制下的銷售速度。公司113年報稱已掌握完銷個案、土地庫存與熱銷預售案，未來五年業績能見度已備齊，並以六至十年長期案源規劃新開發；此屬公司管理層展望，仍需以實際銷售、完工與交屋認列驗證。2025年公司鎖定台南「欣府城進士樓」、「欣府城君子樓」、高雄「欣都星」、高雄龍華段案、屏東「幸福欣印象」等預售或成屋案；外部報導稱2025年高雄、台南推案總銷可達260億至300億元，其中「欣都星」總銷約100億元，龍華段／欣香榭與台南欣府城後續期別為主要案源。2026年營運動能來自台南「欣府城進士樓」剩餘交屋、屏東「幸福欣印象」取得使照後交屋入帳，以及南部預售案續銷；截至2026年5月累計營收年增顯著，顯示交屋認列回升。2027至2028年推估仍以高雄、台南大型預售案逐步完工入帳為核心，但各案實際入帳年度未完全公開，故屬中等信心推估。產業趨勢方面，高雄台積電Fab22 2奈米量產與南部半導體聚落擴張，可支撐高雄、台南、屏東就業人口與首購首換需求；但房市受到第七波信用管制、第二戶貸款成數下修、無寬限期、建商餘屋貸款成數限制、銀行不動產放款集中度、營建缺工缺料、工料成本上升、颱風或施工風險、買方觀望與退戶率變化等壓力。公司策略是集中剛需區域、預售為主、縮短銷售週期、控制工期與成本、審慎財務槓桿、增加網路與口碑行銷，並強調制震與耐震工法提升產品差異化。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 巴森營造股份有限公司 未上市營造商；多次承攬欣巴巴及子公司江城建設工程，年報揭露黃烱輝、黃湘允與巴森營造具股東關係，相關工程案需利益迴避。
  • 象印營造有限公司 未上市營造商；公開建案資料顯示其為屏東「幸福欣印象」營造單位，屬個案工程承包商。
  • 土地地主與合建地主 未上市或自然人為主；欣巴巴採購地自建與合建分售並行，土地取得、合建條件及開發時程是主要上游資源。
  • 建材、鋼筋、水泥、機電與制震工法供應商 多為專案採購與工程發包供應鏈；公司年報提及缺工缺料、工料雙漲與制震壁、Alfa Safe柱核心耐震結構等工法，但未完整揭露直接供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 首購與首換自住客 主要終端客戶；公司產品定位以2房、2+1房、3房、雙衛浴與剛性需求為主。
  • 南部科技業與就業人口 終端需求來源之一；高雄台積電2奈米量產與南部科技廊帶成形，可能帶動高雄、台南、屏東住宅需求。
  • 愛山林建設開發股份有限公司 2540 台股上市公司；外部報導稱高雄「欣都星」與龍華段案由愛山林負責代銷，屬銷售通路／代銷合作方。
  • 成屋與預售案買方、銀行房貸通路、物業管理與社區管委會 下游交屋、貸款、售後服務與社區管理相關對象；公司業務部負責銷售合約、期款、銀貸對保、撥款、交屋、產權移轉與客訴處理。

Competitors

Sources（20）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.