Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2540 愛山林. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2540
2540
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 愛山林 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.1%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.0% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 群益金鼎 has accumulated 20,732 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 559 lots, has sold 63%, 206 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.90pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.65pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,820 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 群益金鼎 +20,732
- 港商野村 +1,068
- 花旗環球 +686
- 富邦-台北 +604
- 永豐金-豐原 +409
- 國票-中港 +396
Distributing
- 台灣摩根士丹利 206 left
- 凱基-台北 149 left
- 統一 178 left
- 國票證券 158 left
- 合庫-自強 23 left
- 國票-中正 6 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -2,256
- 元大-雙和 -1,811
- 富邦-南京 -1,067
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -986
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 146 | +76.8% | +82.7% | 87% | +75.3% |
| 20-40 | 504 | +47.6% | +32.9% | 85.9% | +32.6% |
| 40-60 | 477 | +12.9% | +1.6% | 53.9% | -13.3% |
| 60-80 | 659 | +46.1% | +34.8% | 68.6% | +24.1% |
| 80-100 You are here | 284 | +87.2% | +72.3% | 76.1% | +67.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 91.33, at the 98.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 482 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 21.8%, win rate 57.7%, beat the market by 11.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.89%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +9.42 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
86 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.41%, win rate 57.6%, beating the market by +6.54 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.41%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by +2.1 pts on average.
What does 愛山林 do? Company profile
Overview
愛山林建設開發股份有限公司，統一編號22190686，成立於1986年9月6日，1989年12月26日於臺灣證券交易所上市，屬普通股營運公司。公司總部位於台北市中山區龍江路128號2樓，主要從事不動產代銷與仲介經紀、住宅及大樓開發租售、不動產買賣、營造承攬與相關室內裝修等業務。董事長為祝文宇；多數公開資料顯示總經理為祝藝，部分舊資料仍列張境在，張境在現多以副董事長／發言人身分出現。2026年公開資料顯示實收資本額約94.49億元，已發行普通股944,873,965股。主要股東依公司股東專區114年5月2日基準日資料，包括仰山林廣告有限公司18.16%、丰雲廣告有限公司17.49%、祝園實業股份有限公司17.34%、甲山林廣告股份有限公司15.82%、甲山林房屋仲介股份有限公司4.31%、祝文宇3.48%、上境實業有限公司2.43%、住易實業股份有限公司1.56%、瑞揚開發有限公司1.52%、寒溪投資股份有限公司0.64%；法人股東合計持股比重高。員工規模未在本次可查資料中取得可驗證的最新人數，僅能確認公司與甲山林集團具建設開發、廣告代銷、物業管理、裝潢設計等團隊。
Business
愛山林的商業模式橫跨不動產代銷、自建案開發與子公司祝旺營造承攬工程。代銷業務以承接建商或關係企業建案銷售，賺取代銷服務收入，重點案場涵蓋台北、新北、桃園、基隆、新竹、高雄等區域；自建案則透過購地、合建、都更、捷運聯開或公辦開發取得土地與開發權，待完工交屋後認列建設收入；營造業務主要由子公司祝旺營造承攬自建案及相關建案工程。依113年度年報摘錄，2024年營收合計約111.58億元，營收分布為代銷部門約51.13億元、建設部門約21.41億元、營造部門約37.87億元、其他約1.17億元，換算約代銷45.8%、建設19.2%、營造33.9%、其他1.0%。2025年法說會列示2025年1至11月銷售中代銷個案已售344億元、尚可售1,037億元；自建案儲備總銷金額4,296億元；子公司祝旺營造2025年已承攬案件合計498億元。主要終端客戶為自住與換屋購屋族、企業商辦買方、投資型買方，以及委託代銷或共同開發的建商、地主與公部門開發案。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司全年營收達113.04億元，連續兩年突破百億元並創高，但毛利率降至20.6%，營業利益與稅後純益下滑，主因包含股本擴大造成EPS稀釋、產品組合與讓利策略影響毛利，以及房市信用管制使交易轉趨觀望。2026至2028年的核心成長動能來自自建案交屋與龐大案量入帳：公司2025法說會揭露自建案總銷4,296億元，預計交屋金額2026年240億元、2027年267億元、2028年205億元；2026年擬推代銷／自建案可售總銷金額合計2,091億元，包含左岸明珠、當代帝寶、AI都會城、新竹帝寶後續區段等。中期策略包括持續深耕不動產代銷與開發本業、加強成本與工期控管、投入公辦都更與捷運聯開、發展商辦與廠辦需求，並以策略性讓利降低購屋門檻、帶動成交量。產業趨勢方面，台灣住宅剛性需求、都更危老、軌道建設與AI產業帶動的新竹、桃園、新北、台北商辦與住宅需求是正向因素；但央行選擇性信用管制、房貸成數與銀行不動產授信額度、營建成本與工期、利率、土地取得成本、預售屋買氣、完工交屋時程、個案去化率與高槓桿營建業資金壓力，是2025至2028年主要風險。
Supply Chain
- 自住、換屋與投資型購屋客戶 住宅建案終端買方，為自建案與代銷案主要去化對象；非公司法人。
- 企業商辦與廠辦買方／租戶 商辦、企業總部、廠辦與倉儲需求客戶；部分需求受AI產業鏈與企業擴充帶動，未能逐一確認上市櫃客戶。
- 委託代銷建商與共同開發業主 公司代銷業務服務對象，包含未上市建商、地主與關係企業；依個案認列代銷服務收入。
- 達欣工 2535 2025法說會列有「達欣文和苑」代銷案；推定與達欣體系建案相關，但未在本次資料中確認契約主體。
Competitors
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.