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3131

弘塑 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 弘塑 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 弘塑 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 70th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.5%.
Valuation is high.PE is in the 81th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.3% of volume (net sell).

Chip flow

Bullish +0.77

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
花旗環球 holds 1,436 lots
sellers have 1,309 lots left, ~260 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +85% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 花旗環球 has accumulated 1,436 lots since the start (sold 7%), now trimming.
Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 1,329 lots, has sold 34%, 878 left, ~251 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.77pp, mid holders +0, retail -4.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -450 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

花旗環球美林群益金鼎-新竹富邦證券法銀巴黎新光

Distributing

摩根大通元大證券港商野村群益金鼎港商麥格理凱基

Desks

own scale

中國信託統一華南永昌新加坡商瑞銀

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

花旗環球 +1,436

sold 7%
美林 +925

sold 0%· still adding
群益金鼎-新竹 +358

sold 9%· still adding
富邦證券 +255

sold 0%· still adding
法銀巴黎 +80

sold 0%
新光 +63

sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

摩根大通 878 left

sold 34%· ~251 sessions to clear
元大證券 292 left

sold 44%· paused recently
港商野村 234 left

sold 39%· ~260 sessions to clear
群益金鼎 65 left

sold 76%· paused recently
港商麥格理 87 left

sold 62%· ~16 sessions to clear
凱基 157 left

sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

中國信託 -332

unclassified
統一 -294

unclassified
華南永昌 -287

unclassified
新加坡商瑞銀 -246

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 1,309 lots ~260 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +363 absorbed / -149 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -332 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +75.7%

20-40 +35.3%

40-60 +34%

60-80 +27.2%

80-100 +54.7% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	239	+75.7%	+106.9%	68.6%	+63.3%
20-40	304	+35.3%	+9.1%	61.8%	+26.8%
40-60	480	+34%	+6.5%	66.7%	+19.7%
60-80	507	+27.2%	+7%	56.2%	+20%
80-100 You are here	1252	+54.7%	+22.4%	63.3%	+30.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 61.76, at the 96.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+110%

Win rate 98.5% Excess +95.6%

68d

+15.1%

Win rate 69.4% Excess +8.4%

271d

Now

+22.7%

Win rate 61.7% Excess +12.7%

1179d

60-day momentum down

+10.3%

Win rate 51.5% Excess +7%

330d

-4%

Win rate 35.4% Excess -8.5%

483d

+34.4%

Win rate 70% Excess +22.2%

570d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1179 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 22.7%, win rate 61.7%, beat the market by 12.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +27.69%, win rate 68%, beating the market by +22.22 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

88 times historically; 60-day forward avg +15.03%, win rate 59.8%, beating the market by +10.15 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.81%, win rate 54.5%, beating the market by +5.24 pts on average.

What does 弘塑 do? Company profile

半導體設備、其他電子業、半導體濕製程設備櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

3131 對應證券為弘塑，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1993/05/07，2009 年登錄興櫃，2011/01/17 掛牌上櫃。總部位於新竹市香山區中華路六段89號。主要登記與公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 292,160,150 元，已發行普通股約 29,216,015 股。公司英文簡稱 GPTC。經營管理層資料在不同來源與年度公告間略有差異：Yahoo 股市 2026/02 資料列董事長張泰山、總經理黃富源；2025 年董事改選公告列董事為定業投資代表人張泰山、張鴻泰、石本立、黃富源等；部分市場資料與報導稱張鴻泰為副董事長兼執行長或總經理。員工規模方面，104 人力銀行公司頁列約 280 人；2026 年 5 月法說與新聞摘要稱因訂單成長員工自 2025 年底約 250 人增至約 350 人，且仍有大量職缺，故截至本研究日以 280 至 350 人區間較合理。主要股東與董監持股方面，公開資料顯示張鴻泰持股約 360 萬股、約 12% 以上，定業投資股份有限公司約 200.7 萬股、約 6.9%，董事與大股東合計約 19% 左右；精確比例會隨申報月份變動。

Business

弘塑是台灣半導體濕製程設備與先進封裝設備供應商，核心產品包括酸槽設備 Wet Station、單晶片旋轉機台 Single Wafer Spin Processor、濕式清洗、蝕刻、顯影、去光阻、化鍍與電鍍相關設備、化學品調配供應系統、維修服務、材料零件代理、軟體安裝與半導體電子設備代理。其應用集中於半導體前段部分低製程市場、晶圓級封裝、覆晶封裝、CoWoS、SoIC、Fan-out、FOPLP、HBM 相關先進封裝與矽晶圓製程。2025 年營收結構依富邦 / MoneyDJ 資料為：機台約 69.86%、化學製品約 19.19%、維修及其他約 9.85%、軟體安裝約 0.77%、半導體及電子設備代理約 0.33%。商業模式為自有品牌半導體製程設備設計、製造、測試、安裝與售後維修，並透過子公司與投資事業整合化學品、量測設備代理與製程資料分析；添鴻科技負責化學品，佳霖科技代理設備，太引資訊提供軟體與製程數據支援。主要客戶類型為晶圓代工廠、封裝測試廠、記憶體廠與矽晶圓廠；公開報導提及台積電、日月光投控、韓系記憶體廠及美系記憶體客戶為重要需求來源，惟個別客戶實際營收占比多未由公司完整公開。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以 AI/HPC 帶動先進封裝擴產為主軸。2025 年弘塑合併營收據市場與財報彙整資料達約 65.14 億元、年增近六成，創歷史新高，主因 CoWoS、先進封裝濕製程設備與化學品需求快速成長。2026 年第一季公開財報與報導顯示營收約 15.96 億元、年增約 28.7%，EPS 約 16.11 元，需求仍強。成長動能包括：台積電 CoWoS 與 SoIC 擴產、封測廠與記憶體廠 HBM 先進封裝投資、FOPLP 與下一代異質整合製程導入、客戶在地供應鏈與設備國產化需求、設備加化學藥水加量測及軟體的一站式解決方案。產能方面，公司於 2025 至 2026 年積極擴充，新廠產能加入後自製比例有望提高，委外比例下降將有利毛利率修復；2026 年另購置新竹五福段土地作為後續擴產準備。2027 至 2028 年中長期機會來自 SoIC、FOPLP、CPO、CoPoS、HBM 與先進封裝滲透率提高，並可能擴大東南亞、美國與中國地區服務據點。主要風險包括：先進封裝資本支出時程遞延、單一大客戶或少數大客戶集中度風險、急單與外包比例升高導致毛利率波動、人力與場地不足、關鍵零組件與工程塑膠供應、客戶驗收時點造成營收認列波動、技術外流與商業機密風險、國際設備大廠競爭、AI 需求若降溫導致設備訂單循環反轉。2027 至 2028 的具體營收與獲利數字多屬法人預估，未列為確定事實。

Supply Chain

Upstream

名超企業股份有限公司工程塑膠加工、半導體蝕刻設備與濕製程清洗設備相關加工供應商；弘塑 2024 年公告以 7,000 萬元投資取得其現增普通股 250 萬股、約 7.45% 股權。名超為公開發行公司，公開資料提及代號 4548，但非確認上市櫃公司，故 stock_id 依規範填 null。
添鴻科技股份有限公司弘塑集團旗下化學材料與化學品供應平台，提供先進封裝與濕製程用化學品；未上市櫃。
佳霖科技股份有限公司弘塑集團旗下設備代理與量測檢測設備導入平台，曾代理或引進國外檢測設備；未上市櫃。
太引資訊系統股份有限公司弘塑集團旗下軟體與製程資料分析支援公司，用於製程資料、工程分析與智慧製造整合；未上市櫃。
Sigray 美國非台股掛牌公司，弘塑旗下佳霖科技曾與其合作導入先進封裝 X-ray / micro bump 檢測設備。

Downstream

台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 晶圓代工與先進封裝大客戶之一，CoWoS、SoIC 等擴產帶動濕製程設備需求；公開報導稱其為弘塑重要客戶，但精確營收占比未由公司完整揭露。
日月光投資控股股份有限公司 3711 封裝測試與先進封裝客戶；Taipei Times 報導稱 ASE Technology Holding 為弘塑主要客戶之一。
力成科技股份有限公司 6239 台灣封測與先進封裝供應鏈公司，受惠 AI/HPC 與先進封裝外溢需求；是否為弘塑直接客戶未完全公開，列為潛在下游應用端。
美系記憶體大廠公開報導稱弘塑已取得美系記憶體大廠 HBM 相關訂單；未具名且非台股掛牌，stock_id 填 null。
韓系記憶體大廠公開報導稱韓系記憶體客戶與弘塑接洽或為主要客戶群；未具名且非台股掛牌，stock_id 填 null。

Competitors

辛耘企業股份有限公司 3583 台股上櫃半導體設備與再生晶圓相關公司，部分業務涉及濕製程、設備代理與先進封裝供應鏈，與弘塑在半導體設備題材上具競爭與比較關係。
萬潤科技股份有限公司 6187 台股上櫃先進封裝與自動化設備供應商，產品與弘塑不完全相同，但同受 CoWoS、AI 先進封裝擴產驅動，屬資本市場與客戶資本支出競爭同業。
志聖工業股份有限公司 2467 台股上市製程設備商，布局半導體與先進封裝相關設備，屬廣義半導體設備競爭同業。
SCREEN Holdings 日本上市公司，全球濕製程、清洗與半導體設備大廠；非台股掛牌，stock_id 填 null。
Tokyo Electron 日本上市半導體設備大廠，濕製程與前段設備領域具全球競爭力；非台股掛牌，stock_id 填 null。
Lam Research / SEZ 美國上市半導體設備公司 Lam Research 及其相關濕製程技術品牌 SEZ，為國際濕製程與清洗設備競爭者；非台股掛牌。
Applied Materials / Semitool 美國上市半導體設備公司，Semitool 為其收購之電鍍與濕製程相關設備品牌；非台股掛牌。
ACM Research 美國 / 中國半導體清洗與濕製程設備供應商，非台股掛牌。

Sources（26）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.