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4958

臻鼎-KY Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 臻鼎-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 18Quality 45Growth 79Momentum 99Chips 24

Is 臻鼎-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 49th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.31
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 元富 holds 4,637 lots
  • sellers have 3,838 lots left, ~156 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +275% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元富 has accumulated 4,637 lots since the start (sold 9%), holding.
  • Main distributor 凱基 peaked at 9,454 lots, has sold 83%, 1,607 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.22pp, mid holders -23, retail +5.58pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42,578 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元富富邦證券元大證券統一凱基-桃園國泰-敦南
Distributing
凱基美商高盛凱基-站前永豐金-匯立中國信託國泰-桃園
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球美林凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元富 +4,637
    sold 9%
  • 富邦證券 +4,566
    sold 24%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +4,470
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一 +2,927
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 凱基-桃園 +2,637
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +2,494
    sold 24%

Distributing

  • 凱基 1,607 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 3,241 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 凱基-站前 813 left
    sold 57%· ~156 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 776 left
    sold 55%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 中國信託 1,015 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 國泰-桃園 673 left
    sold 29%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -11,686
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 花旗環球 -9,698
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美林 -9,072
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -8,502
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 3,838 lots ~156 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +12,469 absorbed / -2,070 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -33,816 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 historical occurrences (since 2014-04-02)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +3.14%, Excess +5.46%, Beat mkt rate 72.2%；60-day: Win 70.6%, Sample 17, Median +6.05%, Excess +7.45%, Beat mkt rate 64.7%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median -0.33%, Excess +0.06%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +3.35%

20-day +6.86%
60-day +11.96%
120-day +3.35%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
70.6%
50%
Sample
18
17
16
Median
+3.14%
+6.05%
-0.33%
Excess
+5.46%
+7.45%
+0.06%
Beat mkt rate
72.2%
64.7%
50%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.35%, beat the market by 0.06 pts; win rate 50%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.39%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 historical occurrences (since 2011-12-26)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.7%, Sample 62, Median +2.46%, Excess +1.92%, Beat mkt rate 51.6%；60-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 62, Median +1.8%, Excess +2.18%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 55.7%, Sample 61, Median +2.78%, Excess +3.35%, Beat mkt rate 42.6%

120 days after: historical avg +9.59%

20-day +3.54%
60-day +5.99%
120-day +9.59%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.7%
58.1%
55.7%
Sample
62
62
61
Median
+2.46%
+1.8%
+2.78%
Excess
+1.92%
+2.18%
+3.35%
Beat mkt rate
51.6%
50%
42.6%

Over 61 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.59%, beat the market by 3.35 pts; win rate 55.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 864+18.6% +11.2% 67.7% -1.4%
20-40 533+35.1% +16.6% 77.3% +21.8%
40-60 250+32.7% +11.1% 70.4% +12.9%
60-80 604+6.2% -0.3% 49.7% -16.2%
80-100 You are here279+2.7% -3.2% 41.2% -6.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 90.13, at the 99.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.9%
Win rate 69% Excess +8.9%
722d
-1.2%
Win rate 31.9% Excess -8.1%
204d
Now
+5.3%
Win rate 39.2% Excess -7.7%
569d
60-day momentum down
+10.7%
Win rate 67.4% Excess +0.3%
602d
+16%
Win rate 73.7% Excess +0.5%
251d
+18.5%
Win rate 41.5% Excess +8.2%
301d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 569 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.3%, win rate 39.2%, lagged the market by 7.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.56%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by -1.76 pts on average.

What does 臻鼎-KY do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板（PCB） 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

4958 對應臻鼎科技控股股份有限公司（臻鼎-KY），為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司成立於 2006 年 6 月 5 日，註冊地為開曼群島，臺灣主要地址為桃園市大園區三石里三和路 28 巷 6 號，股票於 2011 年 12 月 26 日在臺灣證券交易所掛牌上市。董事長為沈慶芳；總經理為簡禎富，年報揭露沈慶芳兼任總經理職務自 2025 年 3 月 1 日起解任，改由簡禎富擔任總經理。2026 年 3 月底股本約新台幣 107.06 億元、普通股約 1,070,598,156 股；2025 年底員工 52,108 人，2026 年 3 月 31 日員工 55,030 人。主要製造與投資主體包含鵬鼎控股（深圳，002938.SZ）、禮鼎半導體科技（深圳）、先豐通訊等；生產/營運據點涵蓋臺灣桃園、觀音、高雄，中國深圳、淮安、秦皇島，印度清奈及泰國巴真府。主要股東方面，2026 年 3 月 31 日 FOXCONN (FAR EAST) LTD 持股 305,515,627 股、28.54%，為前十大股東中最大股東；其後包含台新託管國泰台灣 ESG 永續高股息 ETF 專戶 3.90%、渣打託管列支敦士登銀行 1.92%、新制勞工退休基金 1.73%等。公司自 2017 年起依 Prismark 營收排名連續九年為全球第一大 PCB 生產企業。

Business

臻鼎為全球大型 PCB 製造商，核心業務為各式印刷電路板之設計、開發、製造與銷售。主要產品包括軟性電路板 FPC、類載板 SLP、高密度連接板 HDI、高多層板/硬板 RPCB/HLC、IC 載板 ICS、軟硬結合板 Rigid-Flex、模組產品及半導體相關高階產品。應用領域涵蓋 AI 手機、折疊手機、AI 穿戴裝置、AR/VR/AI 眼鏡、平板、筆電、伺服器、儲存器、網通設備、基地台、光通訊、汽車、工業、醫療與航太。2025 年合併營收新台幣 1,825.22 億元，年增 6.33%，再創歷史新高；年報以產品別揭露各式印刷電路板為 100% 營收。法說會進一步以應用別揭露：2025 年行動通訊 61.3%、電腦消費 27.0%、IC 載板 6.4%、伺服器/光通訊及其他 5.3%；2024 年對應為行動通訊 64.2%、電腦消費 25.9%、IC 載板 5.2%、伺服器/光通訊及其他 4.7%。商業模式為以 One ZDT 一站式購足平台服務全球品牌客戶與 EMS/ODM/OEM 客戶，參與品牌客戶設計與開發，提供從研發、設計、製造到銷售的解決方案；年報指出超過 60% 營業收入來自國際品牌客戶指定生產製造。客戶集中度高，2025 年 X 客戶銷貨金額約新台幣 1,360.68 億元、占銷貨淨額 74.55%，但公司依契約未揭露該客戶名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司在行動通訊、伺服器/光通訊及 IC 載板營收均創新高，AI 相關產品營收占比提升至近 70%。2026 年起的主要動能為 AI 伺服器、光通訊、IC 載板、AI 手機、折疊機與 AI 眼鏡。公司法說資料指出，2026 年客戶高階 AI 需求強勁、訂單能見度與出貨動能提升，預期為新一輪高速成長週期啟動年；2026 年資本支出規劃提升至新台幣 500 億元以上。產能方面，2025 下半年至 2028 年預計於淮安園區投入人民幣 80 億元擴充高階 PCB 產能，規劃至 2026 年底淮安 iHDI 與 HLC 有 6 座新廠完成建設；泰國一廠預期 2026 年第二季滿產，泰國二廠規劃 2027 年量產且產值預期為一廠 2 倍，三廠、五廠與機械鑽孔中心同步建置；高雄 AI 園區分階段擴大高階 ABF 載板與高階 PCB 產能，軟板產線已量產貢獻營收，高階 ABF 載板與高階 PCB 產能於 2026 年第一季進入打樣階段。技術方面，GPU 與 ASIC 架構演進帶動 iHDI、HLC、大尺寸高層數 ABF 載板需求；公司揭露 ABF 最大尺寸達 158 x 158mm、最高 28 層，ABF 載板營收約 60% 以上來自 AI 算力相關產品。光通訊方面，800G、1.6T 高速率板訂單能見度佳，並已開始預訂 2027 年產能；AI 眼鏡營收預期 2026/2027 年保持快速成長。主要風險包含：單一大客戶銷貨占比高、消費電子循環與新品節奏不確定、AI 伺服器/光通訊/載板擴產若需求不如預期可能造成產能利用率壓力、同業價格競爭、原物料與設備供應、匯率波動、地緣政治與關稅/供應鏈在地化要求、環保及低碳法規、資安與客戶機密保護風險。上述 2026 至 2028 展望多來自公司法說與年報之預測性陳述，仍需追蹤實際訂單、稼動率與資本支出執行。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台光電子材料 2383 年報列為銅箔基板主要供應商之一，台股上市公司。
  • 台虹科技 8039 年報列為銅箔基板主要供應商之一，台股上市公司。
  • 杜邦 年報列為銅箔基板主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌公司，美國企業。
  • 力森諾科 年報列為銅箔基板主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌公司，日本材料企業。
  • 安美特 年報列為化學品主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌公司。
  • JCU 年報列為化學品主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌公司，日本企業。
  • H供應商 2025 年報揭露 2024 年進貨占比 11.51%、2025 年 7.35%；因契約約定以代號揭露，無法確認公司名稱。
Downstream
  • X客戶 2025 年報揭露單一 X 客戶 2025 年銷貨占比 74.55%、2024 年 75.60%；因契約約定以代號揭露，無法確認是否為台股或外國上市公司。
  • 國際品牌客戶 公司年報稱超過 60% 營業收入來自國際品牌客戶指定生產製造；具體客戶多未公開。
  • EMS/ODM/OEM 組裝廠 公司產品出貨對象可為國際電子專業代工大廠、品牌客戶指定 ODM/OEM 或品牌客戶自有組裝廠；年報未逐一揭露公司名稱。
  • AI伺服器、GPU/ASIC、光通訊與IC載板客戶 法說資料稱已與多家關鍵客戶就中長期 AI 相關應用需求達成合作共識，並有伺服器與光通訊全球領先客戶認證中；名稱未公開。

Competitors

  • 欣興電子 3037 台股上市 PCB/IC 載板同業，與臻鼎在高階 PCB、載板與伺服器相關應用競爭。
  • 健鼎科技 3044 台股上市 PCB 大廠，主要競爭於硬板、多層板與終端電子應用。
  • 華通電腦 2313 台股上市 PCB 廠，產品涵蓋 HDI、軟硬板與通訊/消費電子應用。
  • 南亞電路板 8046 台股上市 IC 載板與 PCB 廠，與臻鼎 IC 載板布局有競爭關係。
  • 景碩科技 3189 台股上市 IC 載板廠，與臻鼎在 ABF/BT 載板領域競爭。
  • 燿華電子 2367 台股上市 PCB 廠，涉及 HDI、汽車與電子產品板材。
  • 台郡科技 6269 台股上市軟板廠，與臻鼎在 FPC、行動裝置與穿戴應用競爭。
  • 嘉聯益科技 6153 台股上市軟板廠，與臻鼎在 FPC 及消費電子應用競爭。
  • 瀚宇博德 5469 台股上櫃 PCB 廠，與臻鼎在電腦、消費電子及通訊應用部分重疊。
  • 揖斐電 日本上市 PCB/IC 載板業者，非台股掛牌；在高階載板與伺服器相關材料板領域為國際競爭者。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.