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5880

合庫金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 合庫金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 68Quality 71Growth 79Momentum 51Chips 94

Is 合庫金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.0%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 37th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 66th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 13.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.21
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元大證券 holds 24,079 lots
  • sellers have 7,021 lots left, ~1148 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大證券 has accumulated 24,079 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金-匯立 peaked at 6,357 lots, has sold 34%, 4,214 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.48pp, mid holders +22, retail +0.42pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -112,935 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大證券港商野村新加坡商瑞銀永豐金證券港商麥格理台新證券
Distributing
永豐金-匯立合庫-高雄玉山-新竹華南永昌-麻豆台新-高雄合庫-桃園
Desks
own scale
摩根大通凱基-台北美商高盛(牛牛牛)亞證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大證券 +24,079
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +12,357
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +12,188
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +11,644
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +9,676
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +6,234
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金-匯立 4,214 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 合庫-高雄 1,106 left
    sold 41%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 玉山-新竹 1,200 left
    sold 35%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-麻豆 947 left
    sold 40%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 台新-高雄 940 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 合庫-桃園 936 left
    sold 27%· ~26 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -39,705
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -30,797
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 美商高盛 -21,601
    hedge desk · will cover
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 -17,398
    unclassified
Still selling 7,021 lots ~1148 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +59,900 absorbed / -3,778 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -80,534 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.42%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

32 historical occurrences (since 2013-02-18)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.8%, Sample 31, Median +0.45%, Excess -0.64%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%；60-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 31, Median +0.94%, Excess -3.77%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%；120-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 30, Median +1.59%, Excess -7.74%, Beat mkt rate 30%

120 days after: historical avg +2.78%

20-day +0.63%
60-day +1.12%
120-day +2.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.8%
58.1%
53.3%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+0.45%
+0.94%
+1.59%
Excess
-0.64%
-3.77%
-7.74%
Beat mkt rate
41.9%
41.9%
30%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.78%, lagged the market by 7.74 pts; win rate 53.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 452+13.3% +16.7% 79.6% +0.2%
20-40 338+16.5% +18.9% 88.8% +6.2%
40-60 472+19.6% +20.5% 99.4% +1.7%
60-80 You are here496+14.3% +8.2% 94% -3.6%
80-100 755+3.9% +2% 72.3% -20.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.68, at the 65.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+6.6%
Win rate 80.7% Excess +1.6%
457d
Now
+9.5%
Win rate 89.5% Excess +3.5%
601d
+2.4%
Win rate 56.3% Excess -6.7%
772d
60-day momentum down
+3.4%
Win rate 60.1% Excess -1.3%
223d
+10.4%
Win rate 100% Excess -7.4%
168d
+3.8%
Win rate 78.2% Excess -12%
412d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 601 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.5%, win rate 89.5%, beat the market by 3.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.3%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +0.48 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

80 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.2%, win rate 64.6%, beating the market by -1.15 pts on average.

What does 合庫金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股公司 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5880 對應證券為合作金庫金融控股股份有限公司普通股，中文簡稱合庫金，為台灣證券交易所上市公司，產業別為金融業。公司於 2011 年 12 月 1 日成立並同日上市，係由合作金庫銀行、合作金庫資產管理及合作金庫票券以股份轉換方式共同設立；合作金庫銀行源流可追溯至 1946 年臺灣省合作金庫。公司總部位於臺北市松山區長安東路二段 225 號 17、19 樓，董事長為林衍茂，總經理為蘇佐政；截至官方基本資料，實收資本額為新臺幣 156,809,369,140 元，已發行普通股 15,680,936,914 股。集團主要子公司包括合作金庫商業銀行、合作金庫證券、合作金庫票券金融、合作金庫資產管理、合作金庫證券投資信託、合作金庫人壽保險、合作金庫創業投資等七家；2025 年底金控母公司員工 15 人，若加計主要子公司揭露之 2025 年底員工數約 9,777 人。2026 年 4 月 20 日主要股東包括財政部 26.06%、中華郵政 3.78%、臺灣菸酒 2.09%、中華民國農會 1.55%、元大台灣卓越 50 基金專戶 1.28%、先進星光基金公司系列基金專戶 0.97%、梵加德新興市場股票指數基金相關保管專戶 0.93% 等；其中財政部持有臺灣菸酒 100% 股權。

Business

合庫金為金融控股公司，母公司主要業務為投資經主管機關核准之國內外金融相關事業及管理被投資事業。2025 年母公司收益合計新臺幣 222.94224 億元，其中採權益法認列之投資收益占 99.96%，其他收益占 0.04%，顯示獲利主要來自子公司。核心子公司合庫銀行提供存款、放款、國內外匯兌、外匯、海外與國際金融、債券與有價證券投資、信託、信用卡、電子金融、財富管理、私人銀行、保險代理等業務；2025 年底總存款 4.582 兆元、放款 3.146 兆元、外匯業務量 1,627.27 億美元、投資業務 1.241 兆元、貴賓戶 AUM 1.1995 兆元、信託業務營運量 2,739.35 億元、信用卡與 VISA 金融卡簽帳金額 560.61 億元。2025 年合併稅後淨利 214.48 億元、年增 8.27%、EPS 1.36 元，主要成長動能來自銀行子公司利息及手續費淨收益；合庫銀行 2025 年稅後淨利 207.98 億元、年增 9.73%，為集團獲利主體。證券、資產管理、票券、創投子公司 2025 年稅後淨利分別為 4.28 億元、3.80 億元、3.27 億元、1.98 億元；人壽與投信子公司分別為 2.82 億元、0.13 億元。商業模式以銀行存放款利差、財富管理與信託手續費、證券經紀承銷、票券與債券業務、保險銷售、資產管理與創投收益為主，並透過銀行通路交叉銷售：2025 年底證券子公司已在銀行通路設置 245 個證券櫃檯，證券經紀下單量占證券子公司年度總交易量 68.87%；人壽與投信透過集團通路挹注之保費與基金銷售量分別占 80.02% 與 34.93%。主要客戶涵蓋個人存放款戶、信用卡與數位金融客戶、中小企業與大型企業授信客戶、臺商與海外企業客戶、高資產與私人銀行客戶、基金與保險商品投資人、證券經紀客戶及法金通路客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年合庫金獲利創高，主要受惠核心銀行子公司利息及手續費淨收益、穩健資產品質、集團交叉銷售及海外布局。公司 2026 年營業計畫方針包括深化誠信治理與淨零永續、精進數位服務與智慧金融、發揮關鍵業務與整合行銷、落實海外區域管理、建構靈活投資策略、鞏固內控與法遵、完善資安聯防、育成國際金融人才；2026 年預算目標包括合庫銀行存款業務營運量 4.354 兆元、放款業務營運量 3.339 兆元、外匯業務量 1,645 億美元，合庫證券經紀業務營運量 1.983 兆元、合庫人壽年度總保費 151.96 億元、合庫投信基金規模 607.8 億元。2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能可歸納為：一、AI 與高科技供應鏈投資延續、投資臺灣方案、公共工程、綠能與低碳轉型帶動企業中長期融資與貿易金融需求；二、臺灣推動亞洲資產管理中心及高資產客群財富管理，有利信託、理財、保險與私人銀行手續費收入；三、海外據點擴張，2025 年底集團海外據點 29 處，東京分行已於 2025 年 10 月 27 日營運，並推動新加坡分行籌設，有助串聯亞太融資與金流；四、數位金融、AI 防詐、核心系統現代化、個人房貸申貸平台及服務中台等專案可提升客戶觸達與營運效率；五、證券子公司受惠銀行通路證券櫃檯、主動式 ETF 與新商品發展，資產管理子公司則可受惠都更危老政策與多角化經營。主要風險包括美國關稅與貿易保護、地緣政治、全球利率與匯率波動、新臺幣升值對壽險匯損壓力、金融市場震盪對投資與財管商品銷售影響、純網銀與電子支付及金融科技業者競爭、證券經紀手續費競爭、資安與法遵成本上升、氣候與自然相關財務風險、投融資對象 ESG 限制、海外授信與投資風險、專業人才與跨國人才成本上升。2027 至 2028 年公司未提供明確量化財測，以上為依公司 2025 年報與 2026 年營業計畫延伸之中期研判。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶、債券投資人與資本市場資金提供者 金融控股與銀行業的主要資金來源包括個人與法人存款、金融債與資本市場資金，並非單一供應商。
  • 金融同業市場、中央銀行與清算支付體系 提供流動性、準備金、支付清算與短期資金融通環境；屬金融基礎設施及監理體系，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 金融科技、資安、核心系統與資料服務供應商 支援數位客群平台、AI 應用、核心系統現代化、防詐與資安聯防；公開資料未揭露可確認之主要上市櫃供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 個人金融與財富管理客戶 包含存放款、信用卡、信託、基金、保險、私人銀行及數位金融客戶；為分散客群，非單一掛牌公司。
  • 企業金融、中小企業與臺商客戶 為授信、外匯、貿易金融、聯貸、海外金融與現金管理需求來源；公開資料未揭露可查證之主要單一客戶名單。
  • 證券經紀、投信基金與保險銷售客戶 透過合庫證券、合庫投信、合庫人壽及銀行通路交叉銷售服務投資人與保戶；多為零售及法人客戶。

Competitors

  • 華南金控 2880 台灣上市金融控股同業，公股金控，銀行與金融服務業務與合庫金高度重疊。
  • 富邦金控 2881 台灣上市金融控股同業，銀行、保險、證券與資產管理業務規模大。
  • 國泰金控 2882 台灣上市金融控股同業，壽險與銀行為核心。
  • 凱基金控 2883 台灣上市金融控股同業，前稱開發金，涵蓋銀行、證券、壽險與投資業務。
  • 玉山金控 2884 台灣上市金融控股同業，以銀行、財富管理與數位金融為主要競爭面。
  • 元大金控 2885 台灣上市金融控股同業，證券、投信 ETF、銀行與期貨業務具競爭力。
  • 兆豐金控 2886 台灣上市金融控股同業，公股金控，企業金融、外匯與海外業務與合庫金重疊。
  • 台新新光金控 2887 台灣上市金融控股同業，台新金與新光金合併後之金控，銀行與保險業務競爭。
  • 國票金控 2889 台灣上市金融控股同業，票券、證券、銀行等業務與部分子公司競爭。
  • 永豐金控 2890 台灣上市金融控股同業，銀行、證券與財富管理業務競爭。
  • 中信金控 2891 台灣上市金融控股同業，銀行、保險、信用卡與財富管理業務規模大。
  • 第一金控 2892 台灣上市金融控股同業，公股金控，銀行與企業金融業務與合庫金相近。
Sources（9）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.