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6141

柏承 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 柏承 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 柏承 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 13th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -15.8%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 61th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 67th percentile.
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.4% of volume (net sell).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 32.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
凱基-信義 holds 4,449 lots
sellers have 2,371 lots left, ~2630 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +196% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 凱基-信義 has accumulated 4,449 lots since the start (sold 2%), now trimming.
Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 3,344 lots, has sold 90%, 351 left, paused recently.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.63pp, mid holders +8, retail -5.31pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -957 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

凱基-信義康和-永和元大-信義富邦-青埔永豐金-信義元大-大直

Distributing

元大證券摩根大通宏遠證券國泰-松江凱基-台北元大-竹科

Desks

own scale

臺銀-高雄統一-基隆台新-同大美商高盛

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

凱基-信義 +4,449

sold 2%
康和-永和 +1,278

sold 19%
元大-信義 +970

sold 3%
富邦-青埔 +760

sold 0%
永豐金-信義 +718

sold 3%
元大-大直 +604

sold 0%

Distributing

元大證券 351 left

sold 90%· paused recently
摩根大通 412 left

sold 82%· ~7 sessions to clear
宏遠證券 752 left

sold 59%· paused recently
國泰-松江 418 left

sold 61%· paused recently
凱基-台北 454 left

sold 57%· paused recently
元大-竹科 263 left

sold 73%· ~2630 sessions to clear

Desks

臺銀-高雄 -1,102

unclassified
統一-基隆 -900

unclassified
台新-同大 -823

unclassified
美商高盛 -771

hedge desk · will cover

Still selling 2,371 lots ~2630 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +1,274 absorbed / -1,723 sold sellers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -782 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 32.1%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

44 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg +10.31%

20-day +2.53%

60-day +7.48%

120-day +10.31%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

53.5%

58.1%

55.8%

Sample

Median

+1.66%

+2.78%

+1.17%

Excess

+0.23%

+0.39%

-0.78%

Beat mkt rate

46.5%

32.6%

37.2%

Over 43 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.31%, lagged the market by 0.78 pts; win rate 55.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +4.8%

20-40 -19%

40-60 -7.4%

60-80 +29.2% Now

80-100 +84.9%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	415	+4.8%	-9.4%	29.9%	-13.3%
20-40	144	-19%	-23.3%	11.8%	-15.1%
40-60	150	-7.4%	-15.6%	35.3%	-16.4%
60-80 You are here	170	+29.2%	+20.8%	52.9%	+0.2%
80-100	298	+84.9%	+85.4%	100%	+48.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.44, at the 66.8th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+7.9%

Win rate 41.7% Excess -5.1%

302d

-24.5%

Win rate 12.1% Excess -25%

107d

+16.8%

Win rate 65.2% Excess +2.2%

210d

60-day momentum down

+6.7%

Win rate 44% Excess +4.8%

318d

+11.3%

Win rate 68.5% Excess +8.5%

111d

Now

+36%

Win rate 85.1% Excess +16.6%

249d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 249 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 36%, win rate 85.1%, beat the market by 16.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.32%, win rate 56.5%, beating the market by +2.51 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.03%, win rate 45.9%, beating the market by +4.39 pts on average.

What does 柏承 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；印刷電路板（PCB）製造上市

Overview

6141 對應柏承科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，主要經營印刷電路板製造。公司成立於 1990/05/20，股票於 2002/01/22 上櫃、2003/10/22 上市；總部地址為台北市大安區基隆路二段112號12樓，總機為 (03)354-3961。董事長為李齊良，總經理為洪宗義，發言人為張美齡。Yahoo 股市 2026/01/01 基本資料列示股本為新台幣 1,133,540,050 元、已發行普通股 113,354,005 股、簽證會計師為正風聯合會計師事務所、市場別為上市、主要經營業務為印刷電路板製造。公司官網主要股東名單列示前十大股東包含齊伍投資股份有限公司 13,000,300 股、11.47%，李齊良 8,668,246 股、7.65%，學婕投資股份有限公司 7,173,737 股、6.33%，趙永毅 4,366,649 股、3.85%，李學瑜 3,117,754 股、2.75%，李齊明 2,884,248 股、2.54%，李齊惠 2,487,000 股、2.19%，鍾斌全 2,353,900 股、2.08%，學承投資有限公司 2,234,300 股、1.97%，張月華 2,086,008 股、1.84%。113 年年報列示 2024 年底員工合計 1,001 人，2025 年第一季止 991 人；關係企業包含 PLOTECH（BVI）CO., LTD.、PLOTECH（CAYMAN）CO., LTD.、柏承科技（昆山）股份有限公司、柏承（南通）微電子科技有限公司、柏承科技（香港）有限公司。

Business

柏承以硬式雙面與多層印刷電路板為主，產銷型態分為樣品板與量產板。樣品板主要供國內電子廠研發單位試樣，數量較少但單價較高，可在客戶研發階段切入未來量產訂單；量產板方面，公司以 6 至 7 張基材以上歸類為量產板，並具 IATF16949 認證，可爭取汽車用板及相關周邊訂單。113 年年報揭露 2024 年營收結構為樣品 332,840 仟元、14.5%，量產 1,879,381 仟元、82.1%，其他 76,460 仟元、3.4%，合計 2,288,681 仟元；2023 年營收結構為樣品 11.1%、量產 82.7%、其他 6.2%。銷售地區方面，2024 年台灣 34.23%、中國大陸 51.28%、美洲 1.51%、東南亞 7.82%、其他 5.16%。年報指出台灣廠專注樣品及中小量利基產品，積極提高半導體測試板銷售占比並降低傳統板比重；半導體測試板於台灣廠營收比重約 40%，公司期望提升至 60%。南通廠以高度自動化生產 HDI 相關產品，應用於穿戴、手機、相機、筆電、M/LED 直顯大屏、伺服器光模組等。主要客戶在年報中以 G、H、I、J 客戶匿名揭露，2024 年 G 客戶占 17.62%、I 客戶占 10.56%、J 客戶占 11.53%，因契約約定未揭露實名；下游終端涵蓋電子產品研發樣品、汽車電子、半導體測試、AI/HPC/5G/工業電腦、伺服器與通訊等應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年至 2028 年展望屬中度不確定。公司 113 年年報指出 2024 年合併營收 22.89 億元、年減 10.95%，毛利率 -13.76%，集團稅後淨損 9.13 億元，主因包含大陸子公司停產、客戶需求減少、營收衰退，以及停產相關不動產、廠房及設備減損。2025 年公司自述重點為南通廠營收成長、開拓新客源、提升生產運轉率、產品品質、客戶滿意度、管理績效及產品毛利；114 年銷售組合以八層板以上高層次板與半導體板為重心，台灣廠預計銷售量 320,000 平方英呎，估計與 2024 年變化不大。成長動能包含 AI、HPC、5G、汽車與工業應用推升半導體與高階 PCB 需求，封裝基板、HDI、半導體測試板、50 層以上高層次板、高縱橫比、厚板、細線路、盲埋孔及 5G 高速傳輸 PCB 仍是技術升級方向；南通新廠若量產順利，可改善集團營收與自動化效率。2026 至 2028 年推估重點在於高階樣品小中量、半導體測試板、HDI、AI 伺服器、低軌衛星、車用 ADAS/HPC、穿戴與高密度顯示應用，但公司能否受惠取決於南通廠稼動率、良率、客戶認證、產品組合轉高階的速度與財務修復能力。主要風險包括：2024 年虧損與累積虧損壓力、昆山廠整合停產後轉單與客戶維繫、南通廠量產時程與稼動率不確定、PCB 產業價格競爭、消費電子需求循環、地緣政治與中美貿易風險、匯率與中國大陸營運曝險、環保與碳盤查成本、客戶匿名且集中度仍需追蹤。

Supply Chain

Upstream

上村 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為柏承供應商；可能為日本上村工業或其關係企業，非台股上市櫃公司，實際供應品項未由年報明名揭露。
連達國際 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id 置 null。
瑞昇金屬 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id 置 null。
德聯高 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id 置 null。
鴻海 2317 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；台股上市公司。實際與柏承交易內容需再以合約或年報明細確認。
TAIYO HOLDINGS MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；日本上市公司，非台股上市櫃，可能與 PCB 油墨、材料供應鏈相關。
台燿 6274 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為供應商；台股上市櫃公司，主要為銅箔基板/電子材料供應鏈。

Downstream

連宇 2482 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為客戶；台股上市櫃公司。
宸曜 6922 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為客戶；台股上市櫃公司。
G 客戶、H 客戶、I 客戶、J 客戶柏承 113 年年報揭露主要銷貨客戶以代號列示，2024 年 G 客戶占 17.62%、I 客戶占 10.56%、J 客戶占 11.53%，因契約約定未揭露實名。

Competitors

東山精密 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；中國深圳上市公司，非台股。
建滔集團 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；香港上市公司，非台股。
楠梓電 2316 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
敬鵬 2355 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
欣興 3037 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB/載板廠。
健鼎 3044 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
晟鈦 3229 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
泰鼎-KY 4927 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
臻鼎-KY 4958 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
邑昇 5291 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
佳總 5355 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
霖宏 5464 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
瀚宇博 5469 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
景旺電子 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；中國上市公司，非台股。
育富 6194 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 相關公司。
慶生 6210 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 廠。
相互 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB 相關公司。
榮惠-KY創 6924 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股掛牌公司。
南電 8046 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股 PCB/載板廠。
博智 8155 MoneyDJ 公司互動列為競爭者；台股高階 PCB 廠。

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.