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9946

三發地產 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三發地產 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 93Quality 98Growth 97Momentum 54Chips 86

Is 三發地產 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 12.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 1th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 13th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 312.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.33
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金證券 holds 1,284 lots
  • sellers have 745 lots left, ~109 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +14% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 1,284 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 667 lots, has sold 55%, 302 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.20pp, mid holders -1, retail -0.16pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -792 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金證券永豐金-匯立美林元大-中崙花旗環球新加坡商瑞銀
Distributing
美商高盛亞東富邦-板橋港商野村第一金-新興元大-左營
Desks
own scale
新光-新竹華南永昌統一-高雄國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金證券 +1,284
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +858
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +772
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 元大-中崙 +680
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +590
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +388
    sold 7%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 302 left
    sold 55%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 亞東 100 left
    sold 63%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-板橋 63 left
    sold 69%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 98 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 第一金-新興 76 left
    sold 30%· ~109 sessions to clear
  • 元大-左營 14 left
    sold 87%· ~2 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 新光-新竹 -710
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌 -463
    unclassified
  • 統一-高雄 -449
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -396
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 745 lots ~109 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,806 absorbed / -892 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -187 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 312.15%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

110 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.5%, Sample 109, Median 0%, Excess +0.96%, Beat mkt rate 48.6%；60-day: Win 48.6%, Sample 107, Median -0.29%, Excess +0.27%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；120-day: Win 39.4%, Sample 104, Median -5.72%, Excess -0.36%, Beat mkt rate 43.3%

120 days after: historical avg +2.14%

20-day +1.65%
60-day +2.15%
120-day +2.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.5%
48.6%
39.4%
Sample
109
107
104
Median
0%
-0.29%
-5.72%
Excess
+0.96%
+0.27%
-0.36%
Beat mkt rate
48.6%
46.7%
43.3%

Over 104 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.14%, lagged the market by 0.36 pts; win rate 39.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here572-4.9% -7.5% 30.2% -28.9%
20-40 359-10.6% -13% 30.6% -31%
40-60 342+45.4% +22.7% 75.7% +26.5%
60-80 860+23.7% +18% 64.4% +5.8%
80-100 778+6.7% -14.7% 26.3% +0.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 4.93, at the 12.7th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-11.6%
Win rate 32.8% Excess -19.3%
372d
+12.7%
Win rate 55.6% Excess +2.6%
529d
+14.2%
Win rate 49% Excess +6.6%
702d
60-day momentum down
+1.6%
Win rate 50.1% Excess -9.2%
433d
+11.8%
Win rate 52.2% Excess -0.1%
339d
-0.4%
Win rate 37.8% Excess -5.6%
656d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 372 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 11.6%, win rate 32.8%, lagged the market by 19.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.24%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +9.43 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

52 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.53%, win rate 51%, beating the market by -1.08 pts on average.

What does 三發地產 do? Company profile

建材營造／營建／不動產開發 上市（TWSE）

Overview

9946 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱三發地產。公司設立於 1993-09-20，前身為金革科技股份有限公司，早期為影音媒體唱片公司；2008 年由高雄建商名發建設入主後，業務重心轉向營建及推案，2011 年分割金革唱片影音事業為 100% 子公司，2012 年 7 月更名為三發地產。公司總部位於台北市松山區八德路三段 30 號 12 樓，總機 02-2570-9988。Yahoo 股市資料列示掛牌日期為 2013-09-17，Goodinfo 則列示掛牌日 2005-03-22；公司 114 年年報沿革載明民國 102 年台灣證券交易所通過上櫃轉上市案並正式掛牌上市，故本報告以『2013 年轉上市』理解。董事長為鍾鼎晟；總經理資料來源顯示為楊題銓，年報同時揭露鍾鼎晟兼任策略長且董事資料有董事長兼總經理表述，管理職稱可能因文件時點或兼任揭露而有差異。實收資本額約新台幣 32.655 億元，流通在外普通股 326,554,150 股，核定股本 45 億元。員工規模：112 年及 113 年均為 97 人，114 年 3 月 31 日為 93 人。主要股東截至 114 年 3 月 29 日包括全心投資控股 21.02%、城新投資 15.15%、金基投資 8.35%、智邑投資 6.33%、鍾俊榮 6.01%、長邑投資 5.35%、上善實業 4.04%、楊顯玲 2.02%、鍾鼎晟 1.81%、鍾鼎興 1.59%。全心投資控股於 2025-03-26 完成公開收購交割，合計持有 68,628,984 股、持股 21.016%，年報稱未造成經營權改變。100% 直接持有子公司包括京富祥營造股份有限公司、金革國際唱片股份有限公司、金革資產開發股份有限公司。

Business

三發地產為營建開發公司，核心業務為住宅及大樓開發租售、新市鎮／新社區開發及不動產租賃。114 年年報揭露 113 年營業比重為建設 98.43%、其他 1.57%，營收認列高度受建案完工交屋時點影響。113 年營業收入較 112 年成長 110.86%，主要因台南永興段『三發夢世代』與台南六甲頂段『三發橋』完工交屋入帳；113 年淨利 3.75316 億元、EPS 1.15 元。商業模式為取得土地或合建開發，經產品定位、建築設計、請照、營造施工、預售或成屋銷售，於完工交屋時認列房地銷售收入；大樓開發流程通常約 3 至 4 年。公司產品用途為住宅居住及商業使用，銷售地區以台灣為主，重點分布台北市、新北市、台南、高雄等都會區，無外銷。主要客戶為購屋大眾，包括自住、投資、換屋族與公司行號辦公需求，年報明示近兩年度無固定占銷貨金額 10% 以上之銷貨對象。公司差異化策略包括以『音樂宅』概念結合金革音樂影音事業、導入 SGS 第三方檢驗、ISO9001 品質管理、綠建築與 ESG 概念。主要建案與案源包括台北奇岩段成屋『MAX 豐璟』、台南永興段『三發夢世代』、台南六甲頂『三發橋』、高雄仁武澄德段『三發首席大院』、台南星鑽段『三發 DIAMOND ONE』、新北新莊副都心 18 段商辦案，以及規劃中的高雄興邦段、高雄五塊厝段、台南金城段等。2026Q1 合併財報顯示建設業存貨仍為資產主體，存貨（建設業適用）約 131.64 億元，占總資產 74%，合約負債－房地銷售約 8.76 億元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以建案完工交屋、庫存去化與土地開發節奏為核心。公司 114 年年報列示推案／開完工規劃：台南六甲頂 528 約 15 億元，已完工並持續銷售；高雄澄德段 26 約 100 億元，已推案銷售，年報預計 114 年第 2 季完工、短期發展計畫稱高雄仁武區澄德段『首席大院』預計 114 年第 3 季完工、114 下半年交屋後持續成屋銷售；新北副都心 18 約 80 億元，113 年第 4 季開工；台南星鑽段 2420 約 40 億元，已推案銷售；台南金城 49 約 40 億元，預計 114 年第 4 季開工。2025 年因央行第七波信用管制與銀行房貸水位壓力，交易量縮、購屋者觀望、交屋與銷售時間可能拉長；但公司認為自住剛需仍在，地點佳之預售市場可維持穩定銷售。2026 年主要動能來自首席大院完工交屋後的收入認列與餘屋銷售，以及 2026Q1 已顯示的較高房地銷售營收；第三方投資摘要亦指出 2026 年首席大院交屋是重要營收挹注來源，但該部分屬外部摘要，非公司正式財測。中長期至 2028 年，公司策略為持續尋找交通建設、產業發展、人口紅利具優勢區域，主流住宅為主、商辦為輔，並評估商業地產、飯店宅、觀光產業合作與日本、美國商業物業海外投資；產品上重視一至三房、首購與換屋需求、綠建築、智慧與耐震標章、SGS／ISO 品質控管。主要風險包括央行信用管制與房貸成數限制、限貸令造成交屋撥款與購買力不確定、利率與資金成本、營建原物料與缺工導致工程成本上升、南部缺工、精華土地取得不易、餘屋去化壓力、政策打房、兩岸與國際地緣政治、川普關稅與全球景氣波動、氣候異常造成工程延宕，以及低碳材料與低碳技術轉型成本增加。公司因應包括慎選推案地點、降低土地庫存與餘屋風險、強化工程進度與品質管理、產品多樣化與客層區隔、維持多元資金來源、導入 BIM／ISO9001／第三方驗證與 ESG 建築策略。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 自然人與法人地主 土地取得來源；年報稱土地多向自然或法人地主購買，也積極尋找合建地主，未揭露固定具名供應商。
  • 京富祥營造股份有限公司 100% 子公司，承攬三發地產營建工程，非台股上市櫃公司；年報稱營建工程多由京富祥營造承攬，可掌握工程進度與品質。
  • 鋼鐵、水泥、砂石、水電與其他建材供應商 營建工程中游原物料與工程供應角色；年報以產業類別揭露，未具名揭露固定上市櫃供應商。
  • 建築師、建築經理、代書、金融機構與土地仲介 土地開發、產品規劃、請照、融資與銷售流程協力角色；年報以產業角色揭露，未具名揭露固定上市櫃關係企業。
  • 宏太廣告有限公司等代銷／廣告公司 2026Q1 財報提及宏太廣告有限公司等三家廣告公司與公司代銷建案交易具真實性；非台股上市櫃公司，未完整揭露全部名稱。
  • 金革國際唱片股份有限公司 100% 子公司，音樂影音事業；與三發地產『音樂宅』品牌差異化、公設音樂元素與文創住宅定位相關，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 金革資產開發股份有限公司 100% 子公司，2025 年 1 月完成設立登記，業務為不動產開發；2026Q1 財報顯示與母公司有土地交易，非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 購屋大眾 住宅產品最終客戶，包含首購、自住、換屋與長期置產需求；年報稱下游為購屋大眾，並無特定對象。
  • 公司行號辦公使用者 商辦或大樓產品下游客戶；年報稱用途包括公司行號辦公場所。
  • 房屋仲介、廣告代銷與裝潢業 成屋銷售、通路與交屋後裝修服務鏈；年報以產業角色揭露，未具名固定上市櫃公司。
  • 金融業房貸機構 購屋者房貸與交屋撥款相關；受央行信用管制與銀行房貸水位影響，年報未指定固定銀行。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.