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4536

拓凱 Sports & Leisure As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 拓凱 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 75Quality 77Growth 65Momentum 44Chips 96

Is 拓凱 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 78th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 28th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 17.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.45
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 美商高盛 holds 374 lots
  • sellers have 380 lots left, ~373 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 374 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 279 lots, has sold 60%, 112 left, ~373 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.66pp, mid holders -2, retail +3.20pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -556 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛台中銀-員林永豐金-市政玉山-台中玉山-大里統一-士林
Distributing
元大證券元大-仁愛美林第一金-台中永豐金-匯立港商野村
Desks
own scale
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀國泰證券港商麥格理
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +374
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台中銀-員林 +320
    sold 20%
  • 永豐金-市政 +219
    sold 16%
  • 玉山-台中 +198
    sold 22%
  • 玉山-大里 +141
    sold 3%
  • 統一-士林 +129
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 112 left
    sold 60%· ~373 sessions to clear
  • 元大-仁愛 127 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 美林 92 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 第一金-台中 71 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-匯立 24 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 27 left
    sold 60%· ~23 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -716
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -516
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰證券 -451
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -410
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 380 lots ~373 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +411 absorbed / -188 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -196 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.7%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

41 historical occurrences (since 2013-10-09)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59%, Sample 39, Median +0.81%, Excess +0.87%, Beat mkt rate 56.4%；60-day: Win 59%, Sample 39, Median +5.05%, Excess +0.5%, Beat mkt rate 43.6%；120-day: Win 51.3%, Sample 39, Median +2.05%, Excess -1.25%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%

120 days after: historical avg +3.76%

20-day +1.76%
60-day +3.82%
120-day +3.76%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59%
59%
51.3%
Sample
39
39
39
Median
+0.81%
+5.05%
+2.05%
Excess
+0.87%
+0.5%
-1.25%
Beat mkt rate
56.4%
43.6%
38.5%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.76%, lagged the market by 1.25 pts; win rate 51.3%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 15%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 historical occurrences (since 2013-10-16)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 48.3%, Sample 60, Median -0.15%, Excess -0.7%, Beat mkt rate 35%；60-day: Win 44.1%, Sample 59, Median -3.27%, Excess -3.87%, Beat mkt rate 32.2%；120-day: Win 45.8%, Sample 59, Median -1.45%, Excess -6.96%, Beat mkt rate 30.5%

120 days after: historical avg +2.2%

20-day +0.35%
60-day -1.01%
120-day +2.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.3%
44.1%
45.8%
Sample
60
59
59
Median
-0.15%
-3.27%
-1.45%
Excess
-0.7%
-3.87%
-6.96%
Beat mkt rate
35%
32.2%
30.5%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.2%, lagged the market by 6.96 pts; win rate 45.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 969+17.8% +10.7% 69.9% -8.9%
20-40 You are here421+14.5% -1% 48.9% +3.6%
40-60 429+20.7% +2.8% 53.8% +12.5%
60-80 106-2.9% -5.3% 28.3% -27.6%
80-100 150-14.6% -14.8% 0.7% -37%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.3, at the 28.2th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9%
Win rate 58.3% Excess -5.8%
648d
+1.7%
Win rate 38% Excess -1.2%
332d
-6.9%
Win rate 30.3% Excess -24.8%
145d
60-day momentum down
+8.9%
Win rate 55.6% Excess -2.2%
711d
+5.7%
Win rate 51.2% Excess +6.8%
289d
+2.1%
Win rate 44.3% Excess -18.2%
70d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 648 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9%, win rate 58.3%, lagged the market by 5.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.32%, win rate 36.4%, beating the market by -0.3 pts on average.

What does 拓凱 do? Company profile

運動休閒；碳纖維複合材料製品 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

拓凱實業股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股，成立於1980年7月11日，上市掛牌日為2013年10月9日，總部位於臺中市后里區廣福里星科路18號。董事長為沈文振，總經理為沈貝倪；實收資本額約新台幣9.082億元，已發行普通股90,820,000股。公司主要從事碳纖維複合材料產品開發與製造，營運據點/產能布局包括台灣台中、中國廈門、越南等地，並已在中科后里新廠推動研發總部與新產線。主要股東依公開資料包括沈文振約9,654,182股、朱東鎮約3,457,789股、張桂林約2,918,846股、甘美華約2,651,000股、沈貝倪約1,922,394股等。員工規模：已查得2024永續報告書列有員工人數欄位，但PDF文字擷取數字不完整，本研究不硬填未確認數字。

Business

拓凱是碳纖維複合材料製品廠，商業模式以ODM/OEM、共同開發、材料/製程整合與量產製造為主，提供從概念設計、材料選用、樹脂配方、預浸碳布/含浸、結構排疊、模具與成型、組裝到量產的垂直整合服務。2025年（民國114年）產品營收分布：運動休閒產品新台幣7,206,844千元、占78.31%；航太醫療產品640,003千元、占6.96%；原材料及其他1,355,808千元、占14.73%。主要產品包含碳纖維自行車車架、前叉、把手與輪圈，網球拍、羽球拍、籠式網球拍Padel及壁球拍，複材安全帽、護具、棒球帽，飛機內裝、座椅及次結構件，影像醫療設備零件、輪椅斜板、醫療床板，精密/微量射出零件，以及高性能熱塑性複合材料（TPC）。主要終端應用涵蓋高階自行車、球拍與運動休閒用品、賽車/運動安全帽、商用客機座椅與內裝、醫療影像設備、輔具、消費性電子ODM/OEM及新興輕量化應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年實績：公司年報摘要指出2025年航空、球拍、安全帽及精密射出等產品受惠市場需求回升，客戶訂單成長；但自行車市場仍在去化庫存，接單不理想，致合併營收小幅衰退至約新台幣92.03億元；合併毛利率約35.31%，EPS 14.92元。2026年展望：公司方針為持續佈局未來、深化科技創新、快速引領變革、實踐精益生產；重點包括多地生產分散營運風險、縮短生產週期、省人化與良率提升、擴大各產品市占。成長動能包括自行車庫存正常化後的高階車架/零組件復甦、球拍與Padel等新運動市場、高階安全帽、航太座椅與內裝隨波音/空巴交機恢復、醫療床板/輔具、消費電子與精密射出、無人機及人形機器人輕量化結構件、熱塑性複合材料TPC。2027-2028推估：若越南與中科后里產能、熱塑材料到終端產品一條龍能力、航太認證與客戶導入進展順利，產品組合可望由傳統自行車/球拍擴大至航太、醫療、機器人、無人載具與高附加價值複材；但實際貢獻仍取決於客戶認證、量產時程與終端需求。主要風險包括自行車品牌庫存與消費景氣波動、美元匯率造成匯兌損益、碳纖維/樹脂/石化原料價格、能源與航運成本、美國高關稅與地緣政治、航太客戶交機延遲、碳費/CBAM及淨零排放要求、複材同業競爭與客戶集中/議價壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台塑 1301 碳纖維產業上游代表廠商；公開產業研究指出台灣碳纖維供應來源包含台塑或進口碳纖維，未確認為拓凱指定供應商。
  • 東麗（Toray Industries） 全球主要碳纖維與預浸材料供應商，日本上市公司；作為拓凱所屬複材產業的可能上游來源之一，未確認為拓凱指定供應商。
  • 帝人（Teijin） 全球碳纖維/複合材料供應商，日本上市公司；產業上游代表，未確認為拓凱指定供應商。
  • 三菱化學集團（Mitsubishi Chemical Group） 全球碳纖維與化學材料供應商，日本上市公司；產業上游代表，未確認為拓凱指定供應商。
  • 長興材料工業 1717 特殊化學材料/樹脂相關台股公司；公開報導提及拓凱規劃結合台塑、長興等材料廠推動航太複合材料國家隊，屬潛在合作/上游材料關係，非已確認固定供應商。
Downstream
  • 漢翔航空工業 2634 台灣上市航太公司；公開報導指出拓凱供應其他複合材料航太零組件給漢翔。
  • 波音（Boeing） 美國上市飛機製造商；拓凱為波音座椅碳纖維複合材料供應鏈認證供應商之一，航太需求受波音交機與在手訂單影響。
  • 空中巴士（Airbus） 歐洲上市飛機製造商；拓凱為空巴座椅碳纖維複合材料供應鏈認證供應商之一，航太需求受空巴交機與在手訂單影響。
  • Dainese 義大利未上市/非台股掛牌運動防護品牌；公開報導指出其曾為拓凱安全帽業務客戶。
  • 美利達 9914 台灣上市自行車品牌；公開舊資料指出拓凱品牌客戶包含美利達轉投資並持股之美國高階自行車品牌，屬自行車下游品牌鏈關係，是否為直接客戶需再查證。
  • 國際運動休閒品牌商與通路商 年報/產業平台揭露下游客戶類型包含相關品牌商、運動休閒器材通路業；多數品牌未公開具名。
  • 醫療設備系統組裝廠 拓凱醫療產品包含影像醫療設備零件、醫療床板、輪椅斜板等；公開資料提及產品銷往日本及中國一線城市，但未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 明安國際 8938 台灣上櫃公司，具碳纖維複合材料與高爾夫球具/運動休閒代工能力，與拓凱在複材運動用品及材料整合能力上具可比性。
  • 大田精密 8924 台灣上櫃公司，高爾夫球具與複材製造商，子公司亦布局自行車車架代工，與拓凱部分運動休閒複材應用重疊。
  • 復盛應用 6670 台灣上市公司，高爾夫球具代工龍頭之一，並跨足體育用品、航太、車用等高階零組件，與拓凱在高附加價值運動/複材應用部分可比。
  • 鉅明 8928 台灣上櫃公司，高爾夫球具及零組件代工廠，屬台灣運動器材代工同業。
  • 巨大機械 9921 台灣上市自行車品牌與製造商；在自行車終端與部分車架/零組件供應鏈具競合關係，較偏下游品牌/製造商。
  • 美利達 9914 台灣上市自行車品牌與製造商；在高階自行車市場屬下游品牌與可能競合關係。
  • 晟田科技 4541 台灣上櫃航太零組件廠；與拓凱航太零組件業務方向部分可比，但材料與產品範圍不同。
  • 駐龍精密 4572 台灣上市航太零組件廠；與拓凱航太複材/零組件應用同屬航太供應鏈競爭/比較標的。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.