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7769

鴻勁 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鴻勁 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 16Quality 96Growth 90Momentum 94Chips 6

Is 鴻勁 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.7%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -7.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 83.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.50
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 5,009 lots
  • sellers have 892 lots left, ~226 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +109% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 5,009 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 750 lots, has sold 31%, 517 left, ~44 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -7.84pp, mid holders +7, retail +4.02pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -3,463 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀美林港商麥格理法銀巴黎大和國泰永豐金-匯立
Distributing
富邦證券凱基國泰證券統一兆豐證券國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利元大-大雅玉山-台中第一金-豐原
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +5,009
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 美林 +2,190
    sold 2%
  • 港商麥格理 +1,722
    sold 3%
  • 法銀巴黎 +1,268
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 大和國泰 +1,063
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +861
    sold 15%

Distributing

  • 富邦證券 517 left
    sold 31%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 190 left
    sold 58%· ~27 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 158 left
    sold 30%· ~226 sessions to clear
  • 統一 60 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 兆豐證券 32 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 25 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,558
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大-大雅 -2,136
    unclassified
  • 玉山-台中 -935
    unclassified
  • 第一金-豐原 -825
    unclassified
Still selling 892 lots ~226 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +361 absorbed / -216 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -3,166 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 83.64%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

8 historical occurrences (since 2025-11-27)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 100%, Sample 7, Median +10.27%, Excess +7.58%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%；60-day: Win 100%, Sample 5, Median +44.39%, Excess +28.07%, Beat mkt rate 100%

60 days after: historical avg +52.88%

20-day +14.29%
60-day +52.88%
20-day
60-day
Win
100%
100%
Sample
7
5
Median
+10.27%
+44.39%
Excess
+7.58%
+28.07%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
100%

Over 5 occurrences, 60-day forward avg gained 52.88%, beat the market by 28.07 pts; win rate 100%.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 鴻勁 do? Company profile

半導體業／IC測試分選機、主動溫控與半導體自動化設備 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

鴻勁精密為台灣上市普通股，股票代號7769，證券名稱「鴻勁」。公司成立於2015年4月23日，前身鴻勁科技於1999年成立，總部位於台中市大雅區中清路三段758巷11號。公司於2024年8月6日公開發行、2024年10月31日登錄興櫃，並於2025年11月27日轉上市買賣。公司官方與公開資料顯示董事長為謝旼達；總經理資料來源存在差異，官方公司頁列張簡榮力為總經理，部分股市資料庫列翁德奎為總經理，故以官方公司頁為主並在notes標示。2025年10月法說資料列資本額新台幣16.16億元、員工630人以上；上市現增後公開股市資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣17.993億元、已發行普通股179,930,000股。主要股東依公司股東專區2026/04/17資料，包括鴻旼開發31,248,850股、17.37%；鴻濟投資21,739,867股、12.08%；泓昱開發14,030,046股、7.80%；鴻城投資8,392,876股、4.66%；鴻郡5,605,774股、3.12%；萊宇投資4,441,364股、2.47%；謝旼達3,192,168股、1.77%。公司在台灣設一廠、二廠、三廠並規劃四廠，另有中國蘇州、美國、德國子公司與全球代理／售服據點。2025年營收302.70625億元，年增116.34%，稅後淨利123.61億元，EPS 75.71元，董事會決議每股配發合計65元現金。2026年第1季合併營收約107.25億元，EPS 25.70元，毛利率約56.24%。

Business

鴻勁定位為半導體後段測試自動化設備供應商，提供IC測試分選機與相關設備整合解決方案，產品涵蓋FT測試分類機、SLT測試分類機、Flash／DRAM測試分類機、COF測試分類機、MEMS測試方案、AOI檢測分類機、Burn-in Oven、實驗室開發設備，以及ATC主動溫控系統、水冷板／冷板與高功耗熱管理模組。公司法說將服務項目描述為半導體自動化機械及其相關設備Turnkey Solution，包含供應鏈管理、組立配線、試機檢測、品質保證、前端客戶NPI導入、軟體開發、視覺AOI、全球銷售與售後服務。2025年Q3法說揭露產品結構約為測試分類機42%、主動溫控系統ATC 33%、其他23%、其他小項2%；產品應用與訂單比例方面，AI／HPC／ASIC由2024年的69%升至2025年前三季73%，車用由7%升至13%，3C消費由11%降至10%，通訊由8%降至5%，Memory／MEMS由1%升至3%。2026年Q1法說資料顯示訂單應用中AI／HPC／ASIC約78%，終端客戶地區分布以美國57%、中國21%、台灣15%、歐洲6%、東南亞／日韓1%為主；出貨地區分布則以台灣70%、東南亞／日韓18%、中國10%、美國2%為主。商業模式以高度客製化設備、早期NPI導入、設備出貨、產線支援、全球售服與後續維護／改機升級為核心；公司官方客戶頁列有終端IC客戶與封裝測試廠客戶商標，官方公司頁亦揭露獲聯發科2025最佳供應商獎、ASE日月光2025最佳供應商獎、TSMC台積電2025供應商環安衛精進獎、華泰電子2025優良供應商。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要展望來自AI／HPC／ASIC高功耗晶片、先進封裝、大尺寸封裝、CPO光電共封裝、SLT系統級測試與更高階ATC熱管理需求。2025年公司營收302.7億元、年增116.34%，主要受惠AI ASIC與高階測試設備需求。2026年官方法說簡報預估產能年增40%，總人力規模年增50%，可使用廠房面積年增25%，加工件採購額年增40%；另法說顯示2026年Q1 AI／HPC／ASIC訂單應用占比升至78%。產品技術路線方面，FT端新產品包括CPO FT、WMCM Package、Large Package、Top／Bottom AOI、MC Lid Handler與Hybrid Cooling Handler；SLT端包括Tri-Temp SLT、ASIC SLT、MSLT與CPO光引擎SLT。ATC路線圖由1KW、2KW、3KW往6KW、10KW推進，並列出2027至2028年三溫ATC 5.5KW與10KW等級方向。潛在成長動能包括美系與台系AI ASIC/GPU/CPU高功耗化、CoWoS與大型封裝尺寸上升、CPO測試插入點增加、封測廠與晶圓代工客戶擴產，以及客戶對全自動化工廠、AOI與高精度溫控的需求。主要風險包括AI半導體資本支出循環反轉、少數大客戶或美系終端需求集中、產品驗證與交期壓力、產能擴張不及或過度擴張、關鍵加工件與精密零組件供應瓶頸、同業價格競爭、中國設備商追趕、匯率波動、出口管制與地緣政治、以及高股價評價對成長落差的敏感度。2027至2028年具體營收或EPS屬市場推估，公司未提供完整公開長期財測，故不列為確定事實。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 辛耘企業股份有限公司 3583 公司2025年法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為濕式蝕刻製程設備相關台股公司，屬先進封裝／CoWoS周邊設備鏈，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • 弘塑科技股份有限公司 3131 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為濕式蝕刻製程與先進封裝設備相關公司，屬周邊設備鏈，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • 均華精密工業股份有限公司 6640 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為揀晶設備相關公司，與先進封裝後段設備鏈相鄰，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • 旺矽科技股份有限公司 6223 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為探針卡供應商；探針卡屬測試介面材料／治具，與鴻勁測試分選機共同服務半導體測試流程。
  • 楠梓電子股份有限公司 2316 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為PCB製造相關公司，屬測試與系統模組可能使用之電子零組件／板材供應鏈，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • 欣興電子股份有限公司 3037 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為HDI載板與載板相關公司，屬先進封裝與測試材料鏈，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • 長華電材股份有限公司 8070 公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列為載板／材料相關公司，屬半導體封裝測試材料鏈，非已公開確認之鴻勁直接供應商。
  • Advantest Corporation 日本上市測試機大廠；公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列於ATE測試機，鴻勁分選機與ATC常搭配ATE測試機使用，屬互補設備而非台股掛牌公司。
  • Teradyne, Inc. 美國上市測試機大廠；公司法說CoWoS供應鏈圖列於ATE測試機，鴻勁分選機與ATC常搭配ATE測試機使用，屬互補設備而非台股掛牌公司。
Downstream

Competitors

  • Cohu, Inc. 美國NASDAQ上市半導體測試分選機與測試處理設備廠，屬鴻勁在IC handler／test handler領域的國際競爭對手。
  • 杭州長川科技股份有限公司 中國A股上市半導體測試設備與分選機廠，非台股掛牌；在中國市場與部分中高階測試設備領域具競爭關係。
  • 致茂電子股份有限公司 2360 台股上市測試量測與自動化設備廠，產品涵蓋半導體測試與SLT相關解決方案，屬相鄰測試設備競爭者。
  • 萬潤科技股份有限公司 6187 台股上櫃自動化與先進封裝設備廠，與鴻勁在先進封裝周邊自動化設備資本支出上屬相鄰競爭／替代投資標的，非完全同產品線。
  • 均豪精密工業股份有限公司 5443 台股上櫃自動化與半導體設備廠，與鴻勁同屬半導體後段與先進封裝設備鏈，部分自動化設備需求具相鄰競爭性。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.