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2449

京元電子 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 京元電子 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 24Quality 86Growth 78Momentum 53Chips 81

Is 京元電子 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~91% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.4%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 68th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.2% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 36.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.58
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 6,719 lots
  • sellers have 13,255 lots left, ~76 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 6,719 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 16,399 lots, has sold 89%, 1,881 left, ~7 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -9.87pp, mid holders -14, retail +10.94pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -37,056 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南港商麥格理法銀巴黎新光群益金鼎-忠孝富邦-台北
Distributing
元大證券摩根大通港商野村美林大和國泰元大-和平
Desks
own scale
國泰證券花旗環球永豐金-匯立美商高盛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +6,719
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +6,565
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 法銀巴黎 +4,170
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 新光 +1,582
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-忠孝 +1,354
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-台北 +1,350
    sold 22%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 1,881 left
    sold 89%· ~7 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 5,955 left
    sold 53%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 2,901 left
    sold 73%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 美林 4,671 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 大和國泰 923 left
    sold 75%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 元大-和平 672 left
    sold 65%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -33,849
    unclassified
  • 花旗環球 -23,027
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-匯立 -21,952
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -13,322
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 13,255 lots ~76 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +12,906 absorbed / -12,000 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -27,744 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 36.61%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

72 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.7%, Sample 62, Median +1.69%, Excess +1.06%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%；60-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 60, Median +2.6%, Excess +2.93%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%；120-day: Win 54.4%, Sample 57, Median +3.67%, Excess +8.88%, Beat mkt rate 56.1%

120 days after: historical avg +19%

20-day +2.54%
60-day +8.51%
120-day +19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.7%
58.3%
54.4%
Sample
62
60
57
Median
+1.69%
+2.6%
+3.67%
Excess
+1.06%
+2.93%
+8.88%
Beat mkt rate
58.1%
48.3%
56.1%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19%, beat the market by 8.88 pts; win rate 54.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 734+60.1% +36.2% 98.9% +38.3%
20-40 696+26.3% +15.2% 68% +11.7%
40-60 554+21% +8.3% 69.3% +8.2%
60-80 415+24.8% +7.5% 61.7% +10.7%
80-100 You are here549+27.6% +20.3% 69% +10.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 38.06, at the 97.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+27.5%
Win rate 77.7% Excess +18.4%
628d
+8.3%
Win rate 54.5% Excess +2.1%
703d
+14.7%
Win rate 60.5% Excess +2.9%
676d
60-day momentum down
+22.5%
Win rate 81.7% Excess +13.8%
606d
+22.3%
Win rate 72.7% Excess +13.6%
242d
Now
+1.2%
Win rate 42.5% Excess -1.3%
212d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 212 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.2%, win rate 42.5%, lagged the market by 1.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.12%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +2.82 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.03%, win rate 76.7%, beating the market by +7.81 pts on average.

What does 京元電子 do? Company profile

半導體業；專業半導體測試與部分後段封測服務 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2449 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱為京元電子。公司成立於1987年5月28日，上市日期為2001年5月9日，總公司位於新竹市公道五路二段81號，生產重鎮位於苗栗竹南、銅鑼等台灣廠區，並設有北美、日本、新加坡業務據點。依公司官網截至2026年6月資訊，董事長為謝其俊，2026年6月起接任；總經理為張高薰，2023年9月起擔任總經理。實收資本額為新台幣12,227,450,650元，已發行普通股1,222,745,065股；115年3月公司章程核定股本提高至新台幣18,000,000,000元。員工規模方面，114年度年報列示114年度員工合計8,699人，115年3月31日為8,989人；113年度合併含中國子公司員工為10,911人。主要股東依114年度年報、基準日115年3月31日，前十名包含新制勞工退休基金5.05%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶4.60%、國泰台灣ESG永續高股息ETF專戶4.36%、焱元投資4.30%、李金恭2.79%、富邦人壽2.38%、中華郵政1.74%、元大台灣卓越50基金專戶1.70%、勞工保險基金1.59%、挪威中央銀行外部經理人JPMAME投資專戶1.38%，前十名合計29.90%。

Business

京元電子是全球大型專業半導體測試廠，主要從事半導體產品後段製造流程的測試服務，並提供晶圓研磨、切割、挑揀、封裝相關支援及代客出貨等服務。主要服務包含晶圓針測、IC成品測試、Burn-in預燒測試、系統級測試SLT、掃腳、打印、真空包裝、倉儲與Dropship。產品線涵蓋邏輯與混合訊號IC、SoC、CMOS影像感測元件、CCD、LCD驅動IC、RF/無線、MEMS、記憶體、消費性電子與AI/HPC晶片。114年度營收結構為晶圓測試服務新台幣106.77億元、占30.56%；積體電路測試服務232.06億元、占66.43%；其他10.50億元、占3.01%；合計349.34億元。公司官網揭露客戶結構以IC設計公司Fabless為主約90%，IDM約7%，晶圓代工Foundry約3%；年報揭露114年度前二大銷貨客戶匿名為甲客戶36%、乙客戶15%，主要銷售對象多為著名半導體設計及半導體製造廠商。商業模式為承接IC設計、IDM與晶圓代工客戶委外測試需求，以測試產能、測試程式與設備平台、可靠度驗證、工程支援、交期與良率管理收取加工與測試服務收入。公司具備超過5,500台測試設備、12吋晶圓針測月產出大於35萬片、IC成品測試月產出大於3.5億顆，並具自製測試平台、探針卡內部維修保養與設備研發能力。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以AI、HPC、高功耗晶片、先進封裝與委外測試滲透率提升為主要成長動能。114年度年報指出2025年營收349.34億元、年增30.08%，主要受惠AI與HPC需求大幅成長；公司2025年多次上修全年資本支出至約新台幣370億元，並於年報揭露115年度建廠及機器設備投資計畫總額393.72億元，預計115至117年度新增積體電路加工及測試銷售值與毛利貢獻。公司擴產包含苗栗頭份租廠、銅鑼廠四期、桃園楊梅廠房承租等，以滿足高階測試與無塵室需求。技術面，未來研發項目包含FT Handler、Wafer Probe Mark自動量測、矽光子CPO測試機台、液冷/浸沒式散熱控制系統、高功率Burn-in Oven、低成本Burn-in方案、Silicon Photonic Test Solution、RF與先進封裝高速測試介面PCB、cold plate熱設計與模擬能力。產業趨勢上，IDM後段需求委外、IC設計公司與晶圓代工集中於台灣、AI加速器與客製化ASIC測試時間拉長、高功耗可靠度驗證、系統級測試與先進封裝後測需求提高，均有利於京元電子。主要風險包括：AI/HPC客戶集中度上升與拉貨波動、資本支出與折舊壓力、測試設備高度資本密集、匯率與進口設備成本、成熟製程供過於求造成價格壓力、美中科技管制與地緣政治、先進測試技術迭代速度、電力與水資源及碳排要求。2026至2028的具體財務預測未由公司正式完整公開，僅可依公司資本支出與年報揭露之新增效益判斷高階測試仍為主軸。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 愛德萬測試 Advantest 日本上市測試設備供應商；京元電子投資人簡報列示產線使用多款Advantest測試平台，屬半導體ATE上游設備來源之一。
  • 泰瑞達 Teradyne 美國上市測試設備供應商；屬半導體ATE主要供應商，提供OSAT與晶片製造商測試解決方案，未由京元電子年報列名為主要供應商。
  • 中華精測 6510 台股上櫃探針卡與測試介面廠；屬京元電子所處測試產業的上游關鍵零組件供應鏈，未確認為京元電子直接主要供應商。
  • 旺矽 6223 台股上櫃探針卡與半導體測試介面廠；屬測試供應鏈上游，未確認為京元電子直接主要供應商。
  • 穎崴 6515 台股上市半導體測試座、探針卡與測試介面廠；屬AI/HPC測試供應鏈上游，未確認為京元電子直接主要供應商。
  • 未具名甲供應商/甲客戶 114年度年報揭露最近二年度主要供應商資料為匿名甲客戶，114年度進貨金額新台幣6.43億元、占進貨淨額19%；公司未揭露實名。
Downstream
  • IC設計公司Fabless客戶群 公司官網揭露主要業務約90%來自IC設計公司，包含AI運算晶片、手機、無線通訊、LCDD、繪圖卡、NOR Flash、消費性電子、MEMS等終端市場領導廠商。
  • 整合元件製造商IDM客戶群 公司官網揭露約7%業務來自IDM，主要為委外測試需求；年報亦指出IDM後段需求委外是成長趨勢。
  • 晶圓代工Foundry客戶群 公司官網揭露約3%業務來自晶圓代工廠；京元電子提供晶圓針測與後段測試支援晶圓代工產能成長。
  • 聯發科 2454 台股上市IC設計公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 瑞昱 2379 台股上市IC設計公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 華邦電 2344 台股上市記憶體IDM；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 旺宏 2337 台股上市記憶體IDM；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 聯詠 3034 台股上市驅動IC與IC設計公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 聯陽 3014 台股上市IC設計公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 矽創 8016 台股上市IC設計公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子直接客戶之一，需注意公司年報未逐名揭露。
  • 輝達 Nvidia 美國上市AI GPU公司；多家第三方產業資料與媒體報導指稱為京元電子AI/HPC測試相關客戶，惟公司年報未具名確認。
  • 博通 Broadcom 美國上市ASIC與通訊晶片公司；第三方產業資料列為京元電子客戶之一，惟公司年報未具名確認。
  • NXP Semiconductors 海外上市車用與工業半導體IDM；第三方產業資料列為京元電子客戶之一，惟公司年報未具名確認。
  • onsemi 美國上市功率與車用半導體IDM；第三方產業資料列為京元電子客戶之一，惟公司年報未具名確認。

Competitors

  • 日月光投控 3711 台股上市全球封測龍頭，雖以封裝與EMS規模較大，但在IC測試與先進封裝後測市場與京元電子競爭。
  • 矽格 6257 台股上市IC測試與封裝服務廠，為台灣專業測試同業。
  • 欣銓 3264 台股上櫃晶圓測試與IC測試服務廠，與京元電子在晶圓針測、邏輯與混合訊號測試領域競爭。
  • 力成 6239 台股上市記憶體與邏輯封測大廠，在封測與部分測試服務市場競爭。
  • 南茂 8150 台股上市封測廠，聚焦記憶體、LCD驅動IC與混合訊號測試封裝，屬同業競爭者。
  • 超豐 2441 台股上市IC封裝測試廠，屬台灣封測同業。
  • 菱生 2369 台股上市封裝測試廠，提供IC封裝與測試服務，屬同業競爭者。
  • 華泰 2329 台股上市封測廠，具記憶體與IC封測服務，屬同業競爭者。
  • Amkor Technology 美國上市全球OSAT大廠，為國際封測與測試競爭者。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.