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1595

川寶 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 川寶 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 33Quality 10Growth 96Momentum 91Chips 34

Is 川寶 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 7th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.5%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.7% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 173.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.56
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 1,287 lots
  • sellers have 893 lots left, ~190 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +87% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 1,287 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-信義 peaked at 1,262 lots, has sold 84%, 202 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.47pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.76pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -663 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北兆豐-板橋臺銀中國信託-新竹凱基-信義新光-台中
Distributing
元大-信義統一元大-古亭國泰證券群益金鼎-敦南凱基
Desks
own scale
富邦-永和群益金鼎-桃園美林群益金鼎-古亭
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +1,287
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 兆豐-板橋 +628
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 臺銀 +393
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託-新竹 +377
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +367
    sold 11%
  • 新光-台中 +276
    sold 5%

Distributing

  • 元大-信義 202 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 統一 66 left
    sold 89%· ~35 sessions to clear
  • 元大-古亭 54 left
    sold 89%· ~108 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 284 left
    sold 26%· ~81 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-敦南 62 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 凱基 46 left
    sold 87%· ~23 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-永和 -684
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-桃園 -662
    unclassified
  • 美林 -528
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 群益金鼎-古亭 -465
    unclassified
Still selling 893 lots ~190 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,300 absorbed / -447 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -637 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 173.84%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

65 historical occurrences (since 2011-10-04)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.3%, Sample 54, Median +2.08%, Excess +2.43%, Beat mkt rate 51.9%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 54, Median +1.24%, Excess -1.46%, Beat mkt rate 42.6%；120-day: Win 53.7%, Sample 54, Median +1.78%, Excess +1.57%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%

120 days after: historical avg +7.86%

20-day +4.02%
60-day +2.14%
120-day +7.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.3%
50%
53.7%
Sample
54
54
54
Median
+2.08%
+1.24%
+1.78%
Excess
+2.43%
-1.46%
+1.57%
Beat mkt rate
51.9%
42.6%
38.9%

Over 54 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.86%, beat the market by 1.57 pts; win rate 53.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 438-3.4% -3.1% 45% -21.9%
20-40 138-10.9% -8.6% 23.2% -19.9%
40-60 247-10.8% -10.1% 16.2% -23.1%
60-80 380-4.9% -13.8% 24.5% -16%
80-100 You are here1020+12.2% +7.7% 58.3% -3.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 242.92, at the 99.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+2.1%
Win rate 75.1% Excess -8.3%
189d
-13.8%
Win rate 8% Excess -16.3%
138d
Now
+1.9%
Win rate 40.7% Excess -3.1%
685d
60-day momentum down
-4.6%
Win rate 31.5% Excess -5.6%
324d
-1.6%
Win rate 46.1% Excess -5.9%
254d
+6.7%
Win rate 44.1% Excess -6.4%
748d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 685 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.9%, win rate 40.7%, lagged the market by 3.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.29%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +0.24 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.55%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -1.04 pts on average.

What does 川寶 do? Company profile

半導體業；PCB與半導體製程設備 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

川寶科技股份有限公司為營運公司普通股，股票代號1595，於櫃買中心上櫃。公司成立於1999年2月19日，總部登記於桃園市蘆竹區內厝里長興路三段277巷33號。公開資訊顯示董事長為張鴻明，2025年3月11日起總經理由張鴻明調整為曾偉倫；發言人為簡麗真。公司於2010年10月25日登錄興櫃，2011年10月4日上櫃。2025年12月法說會簡報列示實收資本額為新臺幣541,995仟元；Goodinfo顯示發行股數約54,199,480股。113年年報揭露截至2025年3月31日員工合計183人，2024年底為174人。主要股東依113年年報包括鴻磊投資有限公司代表人張鴻明持股5.16%、張鴻明本人4.51%且利用鴻磊投資名義持股5.16%、唐世翰4.27%且利用晴美投資名義3.93%、貿森投資有限公司代表人曾昌彥4.18%、晴美投資有限公司3.93%、優志旺股份有限公司3.26%、群鋒投資有限公司2.95%、昱如投資股份有限公司2.42%、曾昌彥本人2.40%且利用貿森投資名義4.18%、佑挺股份有限公司1.94%。合併子公司與投資包括川康科技100%、川康國際貿易上海100%、寶虹科技100%、寶驊科技67%、CBT Converge Co., Ltd. 100%。

Business

川寶早期核心為PCB與ITO製品曝光設備研發、生產與銷售，主力產品包含PCB CCD對位半自動曝光機、CCD對位全自動曝光機、觸控面板曝光機、UV-LED曝光機、DI/LDI數位直接成像曝光設備，以及PCB、FPC與IC載板用曝光製程解決方案。2025年法說會將現有產品歸納為視覺檢查設備、PCB與載板用直接成像曝光設備、半導體設備與耗材零件、半導體自動化傳送設備；同時布局TGV玻璃基板金屬化製造產線、光罩AOI、PEALD/PEALE原子層沉積/蝕刻設備、後段封裝測試設備。MoneyDJ資料列示2024年產品比重約為曝光機26%、半導體設備翻修及零組件銷售74%。113年年報顯示2024年合併營收915,514仟元，較2023年1,407,762仟元減少34.97%，主要受消費性電子去庫存、PCB市場成長趨緩、中國大陸低價競爭與成熟製程擴產影響；2025年前三季至11月月營收資料顯示仍有波動，2026年5月單月營收89,998仟元，年增173.85%。客戶結構方面，法說會列示PCB與載板客戶包含臻鼎、瀚宇博德、健鼎、建滔、KCE、志超、泰鼎、勝宏等，光罩AOI與半導體應用客戶群涵蓋台灣光罩、Photronics、DNP、HOYA、台積電、聯電、中芯、Samsung、SK hynix、日月光、矽品、欣興、景碩、臻鼎等；年報正式揭露之大客戶則以甲客戶、乙客戶匿名呈現，2024年甲客戶占銷貨淨額48.24%。商業模式包括設備銷售、設備翻修與零組件、海外維修服務、代理/合作銷售、TGV代工線與Turn-key製程/設備解決方案。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為四條主線：第一，PCB曝光機本業從低價競爭壓力轉向高階載板、封裝、AI伺服器、HPC、車用電子與高速傳輸應用，並因PCB廠南向與供應鏈重組而布局東南亞服務與生產基地。第二，TGV玻璃基板是主要轉型題材；公司113年年報提及2025年第2季規劃建置小量產線、2025年第4季逐步開始接單出貨，2025年法說會則揭露TGV SVM代工產線能力500片/月、最大玻璃尺寸510mm x 515mm、孔深寬比已具備850um 1:10能力，商業模式包含玻璃Core金屬化加工、Turn-key製程與設備，以及CoPoS、Mini LED、FOPLP、2.5D/3D IC、HBM、CPO/Edge AI Server等應用；但TGV市場滲透仍取決於AI/HPC大客戶導入節奏、良率、成本與先進封裝路線競爭。第三，寶虹科技投入PEALD/PEALE、PECVD、半導體傳送與封測測試設備，法說會列示ALD市場2025至2034年CAGR約13.42%，並鎖定TGV玻璃中介層Cu seed layer、矽光子CPO、陶瓷散熱基板、SOFC等應用。第四，Mask AOI代理/合作與檢測設備有望受惠光罩、晶圓代工、封測、基板與先進封裝需求，法說會估Mask AOI市場2025至2030年CAGR逾10%。主要風險包括：PCB與消費電子景氣循環、設備訂單遞延、單一大客戶占比偏高、TGV與PEALD新事業量產與認證不確定、技術良率與資本支出壓力、國際競爭與中國低價競爭、匯率與地緣政治、關鍵零組件供應、半導體設備景氣循環。上述展望多屬公司簡報與產業推估，非公司保證財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • USHIO 日本光源與曝光燈相關供應商；PCB Shop資料列示川寶產品包含USHIO各式曝光燈，非台股掛牌。
  • Stratus Vision 光罩AOI與精密檢測設備合作/代理產品來源；法說會列示其AOI設備可應用於光罩、基板、晶圓表面及先進材料檢測，未查得台股掛牌。
  • Synergie CAD 寶虹科技合作之IC Burn-In Tester相關歐洲設備/技術夥伴；法說會列示合作建立IC Burn-In Tester實驗室與代理/服務模式，非台股掛牌。
  • Q&R IC老化爐與可靠度測試設備合作品牌/設備來源；法說會列示Q&R Burn-In Systems與HTOL、THB、HTRB、LTOL等應用，非台股掛牌。
  • 設備儀器製造商與關鍵零組件供應商 年報將半導體零組件通路上游概括為設備儀器製造商與關鍵零組件供應商；個別廠商多未公開或以供應商甲匿名揭露。
Downstream
  • 臻鼎-KY 4958 PCB與載板設備客戶；2025年法說會列為全球累計設備銷售超過5,000台之客戶群之一。
  • 瀚宇博德 5469 PCB設備客戶；法說會列為主要客戶。
  • 健鼎科技 3044 PCB設備客戶；法說會列為主要客戶。
  • 志超科技 8213 PCB設備客戶；法說會列為主要客戶。
  • 泰鼎-KY 4927 PCB設備客戶；法說會列為主要客戶，泰國PCB廠。
  • 建滔化工集團 法說會列為PCB設備客戶，香港上市集團，非台股掛牌。
  • KCE Electronics 法說會列為PCB設備客戶，泰國上市/海外公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 勝宏科技 法說會列為PCB設備客戶，中國A股PCB廠，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣光罩 2338 光罩AOI潛在/主要客戶群；法說會列示Taiwan Mask Corporation為主要客戶之一。
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工/IC製造下游應用客戶群；法說會列為Foundry/IDM主要客戶群之一，但未確認具體訂單金額。
  • 聯電 2303 晶圓代工/IC製造下游應用客戶群；法說會列為Foundry/IDM主要客戶群之一，但未確認具體訂單金額。
  • 日月光投控 3711 封測/先進封裝下游應用客戶群；法說會列示ASE、SPIL於OSAT客戶群，其中矽品已屬日月光投控體系。
  • 欣興 3037 基板/PCB製造下游應用客戶群；法說會列示Unimicron。
  • 景碩 3189 IC載板/基板製造下游應用客戶群；法說會列示Kinsus。

Competitors

  • 志聖工業 2467 PCB壓膜、烤箱、UV曝光與半導體後段設備廠，與川寶在PCB/封裝設備轉型方向部分重疊。
  • 群翊工業 6664 PCB乾製程、塗佈、曝光、烘烤與半導體封裝相關設備廠，為PCB設備同業。
  • 牧德科技 3563 PCB AOI、AVI與半導體/高階PCB檢測設備廠，與川寶視覺檢查、AOI與載板檢測布局部分競爭。
  • 迅得機械 6438 PCB與半導體自動化設備廠，與川寶在PCB設備與半導體後段自動化應用部分重疊。
  • 由田新技 3455 AOI與外觀檢測設備廠，與川寶Mask AOI、AVI與檢測設備布局部分重疊。
  • 科嶠工業 4542 PCB與半導體封裝相關烘烤、乾燥與製程設備廠，屬PCB設備同業。
  • 大量科技 3167 PCB鑽孔、成型與自動化設備廠，受惠高階PCB設備需求，與川寶同屬PCB設備供應鏈。
  • 德律科技 3030 SMT、PCBA、半導體封裝檢測與AOI/SPI/X-Ray設備廠，與川寶檢測設備布局有部分替代或競合關係。
  • LPKF Laser & Electronics 法說會列為全球TGV技術主要廠商之一，德國上市/海外公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Corning 法說會列為全球TGV技術主要廠商之一，美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Samtec 法說會列為全球TGV技術主要廠商之一，未上市/非台股掛牌。
  • Tecnisco 法說會列為全球TGV技術主要廠商之一，日本公司，非台股掛牌。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.